Aging Well: News & Insights for Seniors and Caregivers
- Median occupancy reveals many communities operating nearer full capacity than average occupancy suggests, narrowing realistic occupancy upside.
- A minority of underperforming properties pulls down overall average occupancy, masking the typical community experience.
- Most markets show high median occupancy, implying limited practical room for growth in many local markets.
- Developers and investors should use both median occupancy and average occupancy to guide supply decisions.
- Dustin Shandri notes the shift: the conversation moves from demand existence to demand distribution, requiring reinvestment for weaker properties.
Senior living operators, investors and owners have used average occupancy rates to benchmark the senior living performance. Median occupancy rates might tell a more accurate story.
Average senior living occupancy registered at 89.5% in the second quarter of the year, according to NIC MAP data. That suggests the industry still has some room to grow occupancy, but the industry’s median rate of 92% suggests less room than operators might assume. That is relevant because, as development is hard to notch in 2026, senior living companies are growing partly by buying or taking on older properties with occupancy upside.
The median occupancy data indicates industry may be closer to full capacity when daily operations are taken into consideration, according to Senior Housing Market Specialist Dustin Shandri.
“The gap between the two suggests that many communities and markets are performing better than the average would indicate, while a smaller group of properties continues to pull down overall results,” Shandri told Senior Housing News. “Looking at both metrics together provides a more nuanced understanding of market conditions.”
Of the primary and secondary markets NIC MAP tracks, 84% of markets had median occupancy rates of 90% or higher, with the remainder below 89%. Pushing a community’s average occupancy above the 92% rate is difficult for most operators due to units that won’t realistically fill, older communities or operational friction, according to Shandri.
Communities in markets with high median occupancy may struggle filling their last vacant units even when average occupancy is lower. That’s because an average counts both the highest- and lowest-performing communities, and these outliers might not totally factor into growth plans from owners and investors.
“The practical consequence is that operators, investors and lenders relying only on total occupancy risk understating how constrained much of the market already is,” Shandri wrote. “The average still suggests room to run. The median suggests something much closer to stabilization — a market less in the filling phase and more in the operating-near-capacity phase, which changes the case for what realistic occupancy upside looks like over the next several quarters.”
Developers might use median occupancy to better determine where new supply makes sense and which markets might be operating at practical capacity.
Looking at occupancy in this light, according to Shandri, also shows a shift in the industry’s conversation from demand to how it is distributed.
“The story is becoming less about whether demand exists and more about where it shows up,” Shandri wrote. “Strong properties are getting stronger, operating closer to capacity. Others may require reinvestment, repositioning or operational change to achieve the occupancy gains that the typical well-run, quality senior living community has already experienced.”
Looking ahead, Shandri believes median occupancy will continue to become a more common metric alongside average occupancy.
“Together, the two measures provide a more complete picture of market performance by showing both overall results and the experience of the typical community,” he said. “As occupancy continues its trend towards industry highs, that broader perspective can help stakeholders better understand the health of the sector and the urgent need for new inventory in many markets.”
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