Week 3 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our best bets for the weekend’s games

Week 3 of the NFL season began with a dominating 35-14 Atlanta Falcons victory over the Green Bay Packers in Green Bay‘s home opener at Lambeau Field.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

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Our NFL handicapping team of Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond and Matt Russell combine to give their best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season.

Odds subject to change.

Jacob: Through eight quarters — all played on their home turf — the Chargers’ offense has produced four touchdowns. Against two teams (Arizona and Las Vegas) that each finished 3-14 a year ago while ranking 28th (Cardinals) and 25th (Raiders) in scoring defense.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen? He accounted for five touchdowns (three passing, two rushing) last week! This after tallying four scores in Week 1 at Houston. In fact, in their 41-31 Week 2 win over Detroit, the Bills scored nearly as many first-half points (27) as the Chargers have scored in two games (28). 

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Lest you think I’ve come to only bury Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ Mike McDaniels-crafted offense, fear not: Through eight quarters, the defense has surrendered 52 points (26 in each game) to a pair of opponents that ranked 32nd (Raiders) and 23rd (Cardinals) in scoring offense in 2025.

Bet the Buffalo Bills to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

Now, after getting embarassed as a substantial home favorite the last two weeks, the Chargers travel to the other side of the country. For a game that kicks at 10 a.m. PT. Against a 2-0 Bills squad that has tallied 77 points, had 10 days off and is in the midst of a three-game homestand.

Look, this isn’t a sophisticated handicap, because it doesn’t need to be. Unless I’m falling into a massive trap — and maybe I am — this point spread makes zero sense. By the way, the Chargers’ point spread record last season in early East Coast games? 0-4.

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Bet: Bills -7

Russell: I showed up to put in THE WINDOW‘s free best bet into this file and, low-and-behold, there was already one on this game. It just happens to be on the opposite side. So, we’ll play a little devil’s advocate here.

Jacob’s right about (waves hands wildly) all of it on the Chargers side of things, but this is the best example of the necessary reminder in Week 3 that we’ve only actually played two games per team. If this was the NBA or NHL, we wouldn’t blink about two bad games.

As much as I’m also tempted to brand L.A. with the scarlet ‘B’ for “bad,” it’s the basics that led to the Chargers getting upset. However, this is more about the perception of the Bills relative to where it was just two weeks ago. 

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Here’s what we knew before Week 1:

• Josh Allen is awesome, and the Bills offense won’t skip a beat with Joe Brady promoted to head coach.

• There’s going to be some growing pains for the defense in a shift in personnel and scheme.

Both things have remained true. 

We now know two other things before Week 3:

• The Bills were a dropped-interception in Week 1 from starting 0-1

• The market moved against their Week 2 opponent because of how much of a rest advantage the Bills had, and how thin the Lions’ secondary is to start the season. 

Yet, before the Rams‘ bounce-back win on Monday night, the Bills were power-rated as the best team in the NFL in the betting market. 

Bet the Los Angeles Chargers to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

For all the trends against the Chargers, the most relevant one is the situation L.A. finds themselves in: Since 2003, NFL teams starting 0-2 have gone 107-85-5 ATS (55.7%) in Week 3. Whether that’s due to the qualitative assessment of the winless team’s “desperation” or the quantitative understanding that the Bills’ market rating has increased significantly through two games, all while the Chargers have hit their perceived floor, you can understand why there’s value on L.A. at a full touchdown. 

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If the Chargers can clean up the basics — fumbles, blocked punts, penalties to star offensive linemen — there’s not a big talent gap between the two sides, which is why this game was lined at Bills -2.5 this summer.

Bet: Chargers +7

Pond: While my colleagues are thumb wrestling over which side will cover the spread, I am digging into the player props ahead of this showdown.

And the angles I’m targeting are specifically tied to one player.

Only five pass-catchers have more than 200 yards receiving so far this season. That elite group includes Jaxon Smith-Njigba (277 yards), Chris Olave (268), Davante Adams (221) Amon-Ra St. Brown (209). The player currently ranked third in the quintet — and only tight end on the list — is Dalton Kincaid.

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Finally healthy, the Buffalo tight end has been on fire to start the campaign. He has 12 catches on 14 targets for 225 yards and a touchdown for the Bills (2-0) and I think he maintains that hot pace.

The Chargers, who have opened with eerie, back-to-back 26-14 defeats to the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders, can’t seem to stop anyone. Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins combined for 530 yards and four touchdowns in the air against Los Angeles.

Now, the Chargers face Allen, the early NFL MVP favorite, who should be able to pick apart that porous defense and consistently find Kincaid. Through the first two games, Kincaid leads the Bills in routes, catches, targets and yards. I don’t see those trends stopping here.

I’m backing Kincaid to clear 4.5 receptions for third consecutive time and score in a game where I think Allen will find plenty of success getting the ball downfield.

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Bets: TE Dalton Kincaid over 4.5 receptions (+106, FanDuel) and anytime TD (+198, Caesars)

Jacob: During a stellar 15-year career playing defensive back for five different teams, Aaron Glenn snagged 41 interceptions across 205 games. Through his first 19 games as head coach of the New York Jets, where he played eight of his 15 seasons, Glenn has seen his defense collect exactly — hang on, grabbing my calculator — zero interceptions.

Remarkable as it is to believe, the Jets’ defense hasn’t secured an INT since picking off the mighty Tyler Huntley twice in the 2024 season finale. The 19-game drought is the longest in NFL history. And get this: It covers 576 pass attempts.

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Is there any reason to believe New York’s INT slump will end this week? In a word, nope. Lions quarterback Jared Goff has put the ball in the air 77 times already this season, and not once has he completed a pass to the wrong team. In fact, Goff has been picked off in just 10 of his last 33 starts overall.

Yes, this wager is a bit “juicy,” but for good reason.

Bet: Jared Goff under 0.5 interceptions (-145)

Pond: When Sam Darnold went down on opening night, I thought for sure his absence would have major ramifications for the Seattle offense and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

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Well, little did we know that backup quarterback Drew Lock was ready to play like an All Pro as his replacement. The seven-year veteran has been playing at an elite level for the Seahawks (2-0), completing 35-of-48 passes for 422 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions.

And the greatest benefactor of his stellar play has been Smith-Njigba. The NFL’s top pass-catcher has 22 receptions for those aforementioned league-best 277 yards and four touchdowns. He was unstoppable in Seattle’s 31-7 rout of the Arizona Cardinals, hauling in nine passes on 11 targets from Lock and three touchdowns.

Now, he’s likely going to be matched up against Mike Sainristil, who is off to a terrible start to the season. The Washington cornerback has given up six receptions on eight targets (75%) so far this season.

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Needless to say, it’s going to be a long day for Sainristil and the Washington secondary trying to cover Smith-Njigba.

I am also throwing in Seattle tight end AJ Barner to score anytime.

We’re getting a good price on a guy facing a winless franchise that gave up a combined eight catches for 120 yards and four touchdowns to tight ends Dallas Goedert and Jake Ferguson in its first two games.

Expect big games from Barner and Smith-Njigba in this affair.

Bets: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Parlay: 60+ yards receiving, 7+ receptions and anytime TD (+219, FanDuel) and TE AJ Barner anytime (+320, FanDuel)

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Pond: Juwan Johnson has clearly solidified himself as one of QB Tyler Shough‘s favorite targets not named Chris Olave, making seven catches on 11 targets for 127 yards and a touchdown in the first two games.

If we look deeper into the data, the numbers look even better for Johnson when Shough is taking the snaps. The duo has connected on 48 receptions for 641 yards and three touchdowns in the 11 games Shough has been the New Orleans starter.

Add that all together and I think we’re getting an absolute steal here with this number. Johnson has had four or more receptions in a whopping 14 of his last 19 games (82 percent) across the last two seasons, giving me a lot of confidence he will clear this number again.

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Bet: TE Juwan Johnson over 3.5 receptions (-102, FanDuel)

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 44.5) at Denver Broncos

Pond: Welcome home, Terrance Ferguson.

The second-year tight end makes his return to the state of Colorado in this marquee Sunday Night Football matchup at Mile High Stadium. And if the native of Littleton, Colo., puts together an effort similar to his Week 2 showing, Denver is going to be in trouble.

With Puka Nacua a late scratch in Monday night’s game against the New York Giants, it was Ferguson who Matthew Stafford targeted as his second option to Davante Adams in the 28-6 victory. Ferguson finished with six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown after putting up zeros in the season opener against San Francisco in Australia.

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Reports have Nacua likely missing this showdown with Denver, which means we should see a heavy dose of Ferguson in this explosive Los Angeles offense.

Back the Heritage (Colo.) High School product to hit pay dirt for the second consecutive game on “home” soil.

Bet: TE Terrance Ferguson anytime touchdown (+200, Caesars)