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(NewsNation) — The days of 3% mortgages are gone, and 6% loans are steadily becoming the norm.
Nearly 1 in 5 U.S. homeowners with a mortgage now has a rate of at least 6% — the highest share since 2015, according to a new Redfin analysis of second-quarter data.
That proportion has nearly tripled in just three years, rising from about 7% of homeowners in mid-2022 to nearly 20% today.
The trend isn’t surprising. Mortgage rates have hovered above 6% since late 2022. But the shift could have big implications for the housing market.
In recent years, the so-called “lock-in effect” has constrained supply, with many homeowners opting to stay put rather than give up their 3% mortgages. The decision made financial sense, but it also limited inventory and pushed prices higher.
The rise in 6%-plus mortgages suggests that the effect is easing. And it means, if rates fall, more owners may be willing to move, potentially relieving some pressure on prices.
Today, just 53% of mortgaged homeowners have a rate below 4%, down from a record 65% in early 2022, according to Redfin.
In many parts of the country, for-sale inventory has already returned to pre-pandemic levels, the real estate brokerage noted.
“Life doesn’t stand still — people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, said in the report. “Those needs are starting to outweigh the financial benefit of clinging to a rock-bottom mortgage rate.”
For now, though, the uptick in inventory hasn’t sparked a major jump in sales, as buyers remain sidelined by elevated mortgage rates and high prices.
“Rates have not gone down significantly enough to move the needle — prospective buyers need to see a bigger difference in their potential monthly payment before things are going to change,” Mariah O’Keefe, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Seattle, said in the report.
Last week, the average 30-year fixed rate was 6.30%, according to Freddie Mac. That’s down from 7% at the start of the year but still more than double 2021 levels.
“Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary recently told NewsNation he sees 5.5% as the “magic number” to get buyers off the sidelines, though it’s not clear when that might happen.
Those hoping the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut would bring mortgage relief may be disappointed, since the move was already priced in by markets. In fact, mortgage rates ticked up slightly last week, even as the Fed cut rates for the first time in 2025.
History suggests the sub-4% mortgage stretch from late 2019 to early 2022 was an anomaly, not the norm. Rates topped 10% through much of the 1980s and stayed above 6% throughout the 1990s.
Redfin’s report was based on Federal Housing Finance Agency mortgage data through the second quarter of 2025, the most recent available.
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