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- Season series: Padres lead 1-0; Monday's 9-7 win cashed the Over; Moises Ballesteros hit a grand slam.
- Cubs have dropped three straight, allowing lots of runs; the Over is 6-1 across their past seven games.
- Padres offense has surged, scoring 6+ in four straight; pitching has allowed 7.8 RPG and the Over is 3-1 in last four.
- Edward Cabrera profiles better than Walker Buehler; Cabrera's season peripherals superior while Buehler has struggled with elevated ERA and short outings.
- Picks: Back the Cubs moneyline (-115) and consider Cubs -1.5 (+145); lean Over 8.5 as a half-unit play.
April 28, 2026, 3:24 p.m. ET
The Chicago Cubs (17-12) and the San Diego Padres (19-9) meet for the middle contest a 3-game series Tuesday at Petco Park in San Diego, California. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Cubs vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 1-0
The Padres picked up a wild 9-7 win as slight favorites (-116) as the Over (7.5) cashed on Monday. Cubs C Moises Ballesteros went 1 for 4 with a grand slam, while RF Seiya Suzuki was good for 2 for 4 with a solo homer in the loss. Padres 1B Gavin Sheets came on late, swatting a solo homer in the eighth inning, while 1B Ty France had a double, triple and 4 RBI while adding a stolen base.
Chicago won 10 straight games from April 14-24 but has dropped 3 in a row since Saturday, getting outscored 27-11. The Cubs have allowed 4 or more runs in 5 in a row, averaging 7.6 runs allowed per game. The Over is 6-1 across the past 7 games, too.
San Diego has racked up 6 or more runs in 4 straight games, averaging 8.0 runs per game RPG in the span. The Padres have allowed 7.8 RPG in the past 5 games, too, with the Over going 3-1 in their previous 4 outings.
Cubs at Padres projected starters
RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Walker Buehler
Cabrera (2-0, 2.73 ERA) will make his sixth start of 2026. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 6.7 K/9 in 29 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 3 ER (5 R), 6 H (2 HR), 0 BB, 5 K in 8-7 home win in 10 innings vs. Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday
- 2026 away splits (1 start): No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 5 BB, 4 K in 1-0 victory vs. Cleveland Guardians on April 5
- 2025 vs. Padres (1 start w/Marlins): Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-3 home victory July 22
- Career vs. Padres (3 starts): 1-0, 0.54 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 0 HR, 5 BB, 17 K, 1.02 WHIP, 9.2 K/9
Buehler (1-2, 5.75 ERA) will make his sixth start of 2026. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 20 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 8-3 road loss vs. Colorado Rockies on Wednesday
- 2026 home splits (3 starts): 1-1, 3.00 ERA (15 IP, 5 ER), 1 HR, 3 BB, 14 K
- Last start vs. Cubs (w/Dodgers): Loss, 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER (2 HR), 1 BB, 4 K in 10-4 home loss Sept. 9, 2024
- Career vs. Cubs (6 starts, 7 appearances): 1-3, 4.54 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 7 HR, 8 BB, 31 K, 1.14 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
Cubs at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cubs at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 6, Padres 3
The CUBS (-115) are a huge value on the road behind Cabrera. He has much better numbers than Buehler, although most of his struggles have come on the road.
In addition, Chicago has really had some issues lately after a 10-game win streak. San Diego’s offense has come alive lately, but the pitching has really struggled lately, too, so the Padres cannot be trusted.
The CUBS -1.5 (+145) are worth a look laying the runs. While Chicago has lost 3 in a row, 4 of the final 5 games of its winning streak were by 2 or more runs. If you like Chicago, you should like it on the run line, too.
OVER 8.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play.
Be careful here. Cabrera has some tremendous numbers on the season. However, the Over is 3-0 in his past 3 outings, and the Over is 6-1 in Chicago’s past 7 games.
For San Diego, the Over has hit in 3 of the past 4 games. The Under has cashed in Buehler’s past 3 outings, though, going 4-1 in his past 5 starts. However, San Diego is averaging 8.0 RPG in the past 4 games, while allowing 7.8 RPG in the span.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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