NEAL CONAN, HOST:
That is TALK OF THE NATION. I am Neal Conan, in Washington. It is Markey in Massachusetts, the court docket nixes DOMA and Prop 8, and the president bows to the summer time warmth and discards his jacket to tackle local weather change. It is Wednesday, and time for a…
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: It is not that attractive.
CONAN: Version of the Political Junkie.
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PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN: There you go once more.
VICE PRESIDENT WALTER MONDALE: After I hear your new concepts, I am reminded of that advert: The place’s the meat?
SENATOR BARRY GOLDWATER: Extremism within the protection of liberty is not any vice.
SENATOR LLOYD BENTSEN: Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy.
PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON: You do not have Nixon to kick round anymore.
SARAH PALIN: Lipstick.
GOVERNOR RICK PERRY: Oops.
PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH: However I am the decider.
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CONAN: And for yet another Wednesday, Political Junkie Ken Rudin joins us to recap the week in politics. The Supreme Court docket strikes down the Voting Rights Act yesterday, DOMA at present and clears the best way for homosexual marriage in California. In Austin, Democrats run out the clock on the Texas abortion legislation. Weiner edges forward in polls on New York’s mayoral race. The immigration invoice seems set to go the Senate this week – the Home, who is aware of?
Later, we glance forward on politics with Political Junkie regulars Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber. However first, the person himself: Political Junkie Ken Rudin joins us right here in Studio 42. And as common, we start with a trivia query.
KEN RUDIN, BYLINE: That is the ultimate present?
CONAN: It is the final one.
RUDIN: Wow.
CONAN: Yeah.
RUDIN: What are they pondering? OK, anyway, yesterday, Congressman Ed Markey, who’s been within the Home for greater than 36 years, was elected to the Senate in Massachusetts to exceed – to succeed the very well-known Mo Cowan – after all, one of many Three Stooges.
CONAN: It could possibly be Much less Cowan now.
RUDIN: Much less TALK OF THE NATION. The momentary – Mo Cowen, after all, was a short lived substitute for John Kerry. Nobody ever elected to the Senate has served longer within the Home than Markey. The query is: Which member of the present Senate served the longest within the Home earlier than coming to the Senate?
CONAN: If you happen to suppose the reply to this week’s trivia query, the present senator who served the longest within the Home of Representatives earlier than going to the opposite facet of the Capitol, give us a name: 800-989-8255. Electronic mail: [email protected]. In reality, your final alternative to win a free Political Junkie T-shirt. It higher be small or medium or – and a kind of fabulous no-prize buttons. So, Ken, once we can, we begin with precise votes. And the votes getting all the thrill this week are five-four, five-four and five-four.
RUDIN: Proper, five-four, 54-40 or battle, precisely. These are Supreme Court docket choices. At this time, after all, was the five-four resolution that principally eradicated, known as unconstitutional the Protection of Marriage Act, the 1996 act that was signed by President Clinton, handed…
CONAN: Overwhelmingly handed.
RUDIN: …overwhelmingly by Congress. In fact, within the final couple years, we did see President Obama, Lawyer Basic Holder discuss, properly, I do not suppose we’re defending this legislation any longer. However the Supreme Court docket dominated at present that it’s certainly unconstitutional. And this principally will give federal safety and federal rights to same-sex {couples} in these states that acknowledge same-sex marriage.
CONAN: And there is going to be yet another of these states, California, as a result of Proposition 8, the referendum by which the voters in California voted for – to outline marriage as one man, one lady, that was struck down by a – the Ninth Circuit, and at present, the Supreme Court docket stated, hey, we’re sending it again to the Ninth Circuit. That opinion holds.
RUDIN: Proper. And, after all, not solely has the federal courts, but in addition the district courts have known as Proposition 8 unconstitutional. So California will be part of, I feel, a minimum of I feel three extra states, two or three extra states by August 1st. So a complete or 12 or 13 states…
CONAN: Delaware’s legislation takes impact subsequent week, on July 1st.
RUDIN: OK, and, after all, District of Columbia. So you may have that. And, after all, you then…
CONAN: A few third of the American inhabitants now, with California.
RUDIN: We do. We really do. We do. And, after all, we now have the information concerning the Voting Rights Act. That is the 1965 act that was handed by Congress in response to what we noticed was taking place to civil rights, folks attempting to get the vote within the South. We noticed canine. We noticed fireplace homes geared toward folks simply attempting to get the proper to vote.
Anyway, the Supreme Court docket stated that these 9 states, principally within the South, which have had federal safety – federal oversight of their election legal guidelines not have that oversight. So, in different phrases, these 9 states – principally within the South – can determine how they need to implement their very own election legal guidelines. In the event that they need to have voter IDs…
CONAN: Properly, they do not should submit their plans upfront to the Justice Division anymore.
RUDIN: Precisely, precisely. And the Republicans’ argument and the court docket’s argument is that the nation has modified. The South is not any completely different than the remainder of the nation. However Democrats are making the purpose that states are nonetheless passing voter ID legal guidelines. They’re nonetheless redrawing district strains that can harm, that may harm, blacks, the poor. So…
CONAN: And Hispanics, we noticed the Texas redistricting plan thrown out simply final yr on the premise that it discriminated in opposition to Hispanics.
RUDIN: Precisely. And with the five-four resolution now concerning the Voting Rights Act, Texas now can implement that legislation. So either side have completely different views and the best way they noticed it in a different way.
CONAN: And, all proper, precise votes, Massachusetts, low turnout in Massachusetts on what turned out to – what folks thought was, in truth, a reasonably uninteresting election, and it turned out just about the best way folks anticipated.
RUDIN: It was. I imply, there was a whole lot of – properly, first we’re speaking about Ed Markey, the congressman who was elected, beat Gabriel Gomez, the Republican, by about 10 factors, not a shock. That is typical Massachusetts voting patterns. In fact, all people remembers 2010, when Scott Brown shocked all people, received Ted Kennedy’s – the late Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat. And so folks have been questioning, properly, whether or not this could possibly be repeated.
CONAN: And so they had a really attractive-seeming candidate, a former Navy SEAL, a Hispanic in Massachusetts, a contemporary voice working in opposition to, as we instructed, anyone who’d been in Washington a really very long time.
RUDIN: However – and I feel that the Democrats have been conscious of that. In addition they have been conscious of complacency. And they also poured in some huge cash, a whole lot of manpower. President Obama, Invoice Clinton, Vice President Biden, the entire shebang went into the state, likened it with – blanketed the airwaves with commercials. And because it turned out, it wasn’t that shut.
CONAN: Within the meantime, there was a rare scene within the Texas legislature in Austin. That is the place Republicans – the governor known as a particular part to go a really powerful anti-abortion legislation. A Democratic Senator, Wendy Davis, filibustered for hours and hours and hours, as she hoped to speak out the clock till the particular session elapsed final evening at midnight. Then nearly an hour earlier than it was set to lapse, she was voted down on a rule of order, and this was the response of the demonstrators who have been within the gallery there on the state capitol.
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RUDIN: The protestors have been saying let her converse. Wendy Davis, once more, the Democrat from Fort Price, determined to face as much as this invoice, this Senate Invoice 5, which might ban abortions after 20 weeks of being pregnant, and would additionally determine the place abortions might happen. And, after all, a whole lot of pro-abortion-rights supporters stated this was very restrictive and simply, …
CONAN: Would just about, would, in truth, pressure the closing down of virtually all the abortion clinics within the state of Texas – I feel six.
RUDIN: It completely was. And, after all, now Wendy Davis is now this nationwide hero. Everyone was watching this on Twitter. Apparently, there have been some 400,000 tweets with the hashtag #standwithwendy. And because it turned out, she did not – wasn’t capable of discuss by – she stopped, the filibuster was stopped, however due to the demonstrators, the vote within the state Senate to go the invoice got here after the 12 o’clock deadline.
CONAN: Three minutes after the deadline.
RUDIN: Precisely. So possibly it is a short-term victory, however Wendy Davis and the pro-choice of us bought a possibly simply, , only a symbolic victory, however a victory nonetheless in Texas.
CONAN: They’re anticipated – the governor is anticipated to name one other particular session, and at the moment, it is most likely going to go.
RUDIN: It could go, as properly. Proper.
CONAN: 800-989-8255 in the event you suppose the reply to this week’s trivia query. And we do have some folks on the road who suppose they know the id of the present United States senator who served longest within the Home of Representatives earlier than shifting to that facet of the Capitol. And let’s examine if we will start with George, and George on the road with us from Norman, Oklahoma.
GEORGE: Hello, Neal. I’ve a guess, and likewise a request. I received a puzzle again in – the quiz again in…
CONAN: Ship us an e mail. We’ll ship it to the judges and adjudicate that, however give us your guess, as a result of we do not need to run out of time right here.
GEORGE: I am saying Barbara Boxer, California.
RUDIN: Barbara Boxer will not be a foul guess. She was within the Home 10 years earlier than she was elected to the Senate in 1992. However she will not be the longest-serving.
CONAN: Let’s go now to Eric, and Eric with us from Jackson, Wyoming.
ERIC: Hello. My guess is Charles Schumer.
CONAN: Chuck Schumer from New York.
RUDIN: That is a superb guess, however nonetheless not appropriate. Chuck Schumer was elected – was within the Home 18 years earlier than he beat Al D’Amato within the 1998 Senate race. He was there 18 years. Anyone was there even longer.
CONAN: Let’s go to Christopher, Christopher with us from Brooklyn.
CHRISTOPHER: Yeah, I am undoubtedly not proper, however I simply needed to say I will miss you guys so, a lot. It is my favourite present.
RUDIN: That’s the appropriate reply.
CONAN: Ding, ding, ding.
RUDIN: That’s the appropriate reply.
CHRISTOPHER: I stated Gillibrand.
CONAN: Kirsten Gillibrand from Upstate New York.
RUDIN: No, no. Gillibrand was solely in – yeah, she was solely within the Home, I feel, two years earlier than she was appointed to exchange Hillary Clinton within the Senate.
CONAN: Let’s have a look at if we will go subsequent to – that is…
RUDIN: I preferred his first reply quite a bit.
CONAN: …Aaron, Aaron with us from Minneapolis.
AARON: Hello. Is it Bernie Sanders?
CONAN: Bernie Sanders from Vermont.
RUDIN: Bernie Sanders, not a foul guess, both: 16 years within the Home as an impartial, earlier than he got here to the Senate as an impartial, however not lengthy sufficient.
CONAN: Let’s have a look at if we will go subsequent to – that is Charlie, Charlie with us from San Francisco.
CHARLIE: Yeah. It is Senator Leahy of Vermont.
CONAN: Pat Leahy of Vermont.
RUDIN: Pat Leahy of Vermont, by no means – Pat Leahy by no means served within the Home.
CONAN: Thanks, Charlie. Let’s have a look at if we will go subsequent to – that is Bob, Bob with us from Rochester, Minnesota.
BOB: Sure, that is Bob Sixta(ph) from Rochester, and I, too, am going to overlook you guys. I will should exit and get the T-shirts from another supply. However I feel…
CONAN: Properly, give us a guess, Bob.
BOB: OK, I feel it is Carl Levin of Michigan.
RUDIN: Carl Levin of Michigan by no means served within the Home.
CONAN: You are pondering of his brother, who did serve within the Home.
BOB: His brother, Bernie. OK, thanks.
RUDIN: His brother was unleavened.
(LAUGHTER)
CONAN: Let’s have a look at if we will go subsequent to Sam, Sam with us from Durham in North Carolina.
SAM: Yeah, my guess is Ben Cardin of Maryland.
RUDIN: Ben Cardin is the right reply.
CONAN: Ding, ding, ding.
RUDIN: In 2006, he received Paul Sarbanes’ Senate seat, beat Michael Steele, however he was within the Home for 20 years, from 1987 to 2006, 20 years, and that is the report, or a minimum of the present report now that – earlier than Ed Markey is available in.
CONAN: Earlier than Ed Markey is available in, and eclipses that treasured mark that I am positive…
RUDIN: Ben Cardin is the right reply.
CONAN: Sam, keep on the road. We’ll acquire your particulars, and we’ll ship you a free Political Junkie T-shirt, and congratulations…
SAM: Thanks a lot.
CONAN: …and a button suggesting that you just received the Political Junkie trivia contest. Within the meantime, Ken, we now have to recollect there was a senator from Maine, Senator Hathaway, who died this previous week.
RUDIN: That is William Hathaway, and he is not a family title, however in 1972, he defeated one of many nice legends in Senate historical past: Margaret Chase Smith.
CONAN: He had an amazing quote. He known as his mom to say he’d received, and he or she stated try to be ashamed of your self.
RUDIN: Properly, Margaret Chase Smith, when she was defeated in 1972, she was the one lady within the Senate. That is how far again that was. However she stood as much as Joe McCarthy. She was a legend. However she took her ’72 election as a right. Hathaway beat her. Six years later, he was crushed by Invoice Cohen. However William Hathaway died this week.
CONAN: All proper, Ken Rudin, stick with us. After we come again, we will be speaking with, properly, two of our regulars: Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg and former Republican member of the Home of Representatives Vin Weber concerning the futures of their events and, properly, the elections as we look ahead to 2013, 2014 and 2016. Stick with us. I am Neal Conan. It is the TALK OF THE NATION, from NPR Information.
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CONAN: That is TALK OF THE NATION. I am Neal Conan. It is Wednesday, the final word Political Junkie day. And Ken, I perceive we now have one final ScuttleButton winner.
RUDIN: We do, completely. The three-button set of final week, the buttons stated: I do not give a rattling. It was one thing to do with TALK OF THE NATION, I feel. However the different button, second button was keep away from the Noid: name Domino’s Pizza. And the third button stated: Likelihood for governor – Simon Likelihood, as you properly bear in mind, misplaced the Republican main for governor of South Dakota in 1972.
CONAN: Emblazoned on my coronary heart.
RUDIN: Precisely. So if you add all of them collectively, you give – you get give pizza an opportunity.
CONAN: Give pizza an opportunity. OK.
RUDIN: Sure. And the Reverend John Pearson(ph) – who clearly had assist from above – of Bordentown, Pennsylvania is that this week’s winner.
CONAN: Properly, he’ll get a free Political Junkie T-shirt. I feel solely smalls are left. And, after all, that button that implies he’s a – a no-prize button.
RUDIN: We’ll discover him a shirt.
CONAN: Over the previous few weeks, we have taken the chance to examine in with a few of our favourite friends and colleagues in a collection of conversations known as Trying Forward. This week, we now have two longtime buddies of our Political Junkie phase. They’ve helped us analyze, dissect and assess many campaigns and races all through the years.
Becoming a member of us right here in Studio 42, Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, now senior vp of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Anna, welcome again.
ANNA GREENBERG: Thanks.
CONAN: Vin Weber…
GREENBERG: It is good to be right here, a bit of unhappy.
(LAUGHTER)
CONAN: Vin Weber joins us from Iowa Public Radio in Des Moines, former Republican congressman from Minnesota, now a Republican political strategist and associate at Mercury Public Affairs. Vin, good to have you ever again.
VIN WEBER: Properly, it is nice to be with you all, though like Anna, I really feel kind of blended emotions about it. This has been an amazing program, and it is nice to be with you. It is nice to be with Anna, and I am going to hearken to no matter NPR places on subsequent, I assume.
CONAN: I assume. Are you there in Des Moines, fronting for the Ken Rudin presidential marketing campaign?
WEBER: I am prepared. It is by no means too early to start out.
CONAN: By no means too early to start out. Within the meantime, we now have to start with at present’s Supreme Court docket choices. Anna Greenberg, what adjustments now?
GREENBERG: What adjustments now? Properly, I feel that you just’re nonetheless going to have a whole lot of fights for marriage equality in numerous states, as a result of whereas a couple of third of the nation is now in states the place…
CONAN: A 3rd of the inhabitants.
GREENBERG: …a 3rd of the inhabitants, proper, not geography, is roofed by the ruling, and likewise with DOMA being thrown out, there are individuals who can have their, , federal advantages in doubtlessly even states that do not have marriage recognition. However I do not suppose that the wedding battle’s going to finish on the state stage, for positive.
CONAN: And this extends, Vin Weber, an argument on a number of the social points on which Republicans have felt a bit of weak, notably within the final couple of years.
WEBER: Yeah, I feel that coping with at present’s Supreme Court docket rulings – then with the broader subject that we’re speaking about, homosexual marriage – goes to be tough for the Republicans going ahead. There has already developed a majority within the nation, as we all know, in favor of the proposition of homosexual marriage. And traditionally, when the Supreme Court docket guidelines on one thing, the general public tends to a minimum of transfer even additional in that path – not all people, definitely, and there are exceptions, just like the abortion ruling.
However I’d suppose that, , that is going to assist solidify a reasonably strong majority in favor of homosexual marriage. And as I hearken to candidates across the nation, Republicans – most Republicans, actually do not need to get right into a battle on this subject. However there’s nonetheless a considerable a part of the Republican base that thinks that at present’s resolution was flawed, and that opposes homosexual marriage.
CONAN: And Anna, that is going to be – in the event you’re state capitals, there are 13 states, plus the District of Columbia, in the event you depend California, which now, homosexual marriage is authorized. The place – what states – do you suppose Illinois, Hawaii? After that, it will get a bit of trickier.
GREENBERG: Properly, there are definitely states like Illinois, like Hawaii. There are even another Midwestern states, doubtlessly Wisconsin down the road, which have the demographic…
CONAN: You imply after the subsequent election, when the Republican governor and the Republican legislature are out of there?
GREENBERG: Proper. I am pondering demographically about these states and the place they are going, and what their different attitudes seem like. There’s nonetheless fertile floor for both legislative or electoral kind of choices in favor of marriage equality in these states. I feel if you get to a number of the Southern states, particularly, , most of them, if not all of them, have constitutional amendments that it’s important to overturn, clearly, it will get a lot more durable.
However I simply – as Vin stated, the tide has turned. It really turned in 2012. I imply, you may see it fairly clearly, that it was really a greater subject for the Democrats than for the Republicans. And over time, I consider a case will make it to the Supreme Court docket that invalidates all of those constitutional, , provisions in different states.
So I feel we’ll nonetheless have extra victories, doubtlessly Illinois, Hawaii, long run states like Wisconsin and different locations the place demographically, the states are poised to be in favor of it. They simply do not have the proper political surroundings but. After which I feel you most likely want a Supreme Court docket resolution, finally.
CONAN: Vin Weber, the opposite Supreme Court docket resolution this week on the Voting Rights Act, that appears to have swung the pendulum within the different path, a minimum of politically, that the Republicans appear to face to profit from that.
WEBER: I feel so. That one’s a bit of laborious for me to precisely pin down when it comes to my very own emotions. After I first was elected to Congress, we needed to reauthorize the Voting Rights Act. And I did vote to reauthorize it, and I bear in mind voting in opposition to each modification that got here ahead to weaken it or water it down or something like that, and I used to be fairly completely happy that that was the proper factor to do.
However that is over 30 years in the past, and issues have modified now, and I feel that you would be able to make arguments on either side of this. I listened to the impassioned arguments of African-American leaders that this was a step again, however I believed the court docket additionally dealt with that fairly properly in arguing that we have made a whole lot of progress, and possibly you must kind of let – must let these states show that they are not stepping again.
If we see repeated indicators of discrimination based mostly on race in elections going ahead, you will see laws that’ll fill the hole once more. However for now, I feel that is not going to occur.
CONAN: Ken?
RUDIN: Vin, we noticed two utterly – as you say, two utterly completely different court docket circumstances determined, one which seemingly moved to the – benefitted conservatives, one appeared to profit – with the DOMA and the Proposition 8 – benefitted liberals. However I solely heard from the Democrats and the left both upset about voting rights or exuberant about DOMA. Often, once we hear – once we – up to now, once we had these form of social points, it was conservatives who spoke the loudest.
We noticed that in 2000, 2004, through the Reagan years. However we have not heard a lot from the Republicans in any respect, from the proper, in these two circumstances. Why is that?
WEBER: Good query. I feel a part of it’s as a result of Republicans are keen – most Republicans are desirous to get on to discussions of the financial system and even perhaps overseas coverage, though that is a bit of extra difficult. They haven’t accomplished properly within the final couple elections with discussions of social points. It is – one might even argue it is price them the prospect to take management of the US Senate within the final election.
And I so suppose that they are much much less more likely to need to converse out on a few of these points. It does not imply they do not have opinions on them, simply that the Republicans are desirous to get on to a critical dialogue about financial progress and the financial system, and even perhaps overseas coverage, though that is more and more divisive inside the Republican Occasion. However definitely, they do not need to be speaking concerning the social points, of which the Supreme Court docket has been kind of the touchstone.
CONAN: Anna?
GREENBERG: I’ve a barely completely different perspective.
CONAN: No.
(LAUGHTER)
GREENBERG: Definitely on the wedding choices, I feel we already made the purpose that the place the nation goes, many within the Republican Occasion know they’re on the flawed facet of historical past on it. There is a core bunch of activists, principally non secular, who’re in a unique place. However, usually, I feel that the institution Republican Occasion is aware of it is not a superb subject for them, and so there’s really no level in commenting on it. It does not do them any favors.
I feel on voting rights, it is barely completely different. I feel that there’s proof that in 2012, that turnout in minority communities was partly pushed by assaults on voting rights, whether or not that was within the type of voter ID legal guidelines and even the extra nefarious sorts of voter fraud that, , finally ends up creating lengthy strains on the polls and, , et cetera, et cetera, misinformation about the place your precinct is.
And it is really an extremely energizing subject, not only for the minority group, however liberals. And I feel that, , 2014, midterm elections usually have a whiter, older citizens. They are usually extra conservative. I feel the very last thing you need is a mobilized liberal minority citizens in midterm elections, and I consider that this resolution has the potential to do this.
On the deserves, , there really are some actual issues, professional issues round what it would do within the 14 elections, as a result of already, the Texas legal professional common has stated we now can have our voter ID legislation. And there isn’t any treatment till after the election. Now it’s important to sue. So I’ve issues, clearly, about what it may – the influence’s going to be in actual phrases.
However for a rustic that is more and more various and a celebration that’s not various, the Republican Occasion, I feel it’s a – from their perspective, I can see why they shied away from commenting on the Voting Rights Act resolution.
CONAN: And Vin, let me transfer on to the immigration invoice. It seems prefer it’s set to go the US Senate this week with about 15, roughly, Republican votes. That’s, as anyone identified, a minority of the minority, and it seems like it could very properly fall on stony floor within the Home of Representatives, the place the speaker has stated until he has majority of the bulk assist, he is not going to even deliver it up.
WEBER: Yeah, which will doom it. It is – I feel that may be too unhealthy, each for the nation and for the Republican Occasion. However it seems as if that is the place we’re headed. They bought a superb, robust vote within the Senate, however not fairly the overwhelming vote that they thought may propel them by the Home of Representatives. However moreover, I feel that the opposition – the opposition on the proper – to immigration, to complete immigration reform, has accelerated, actually simply even simply in the previous few weeks on the grassroots stage, in these states represented by conservative Republicans.
And so they’ve made it very clear that they are not going to offer anyone, quote, “a go” on this subject. As I stated, my views are fairly completely different on that. I am in favor of complete immigration reform. I feel it might be good for the Republicans finally to do it. However I feel it is trying more and more tough to perform that within the Home of Representatives.
CONAN: Anna Greenberg, would Democrats, of their coronary heart of hearts, reasonably have a invoice or the problem?
GREENBERG: Oh, I feel they’d reasonably have a invoice for many causes. I imply the form of change in ethical phrases clearly can be unimaginable. But additionally in political phrases, , it expands the citizens in basic – it adjustments the nation in ways in which, , I feel continues at a path of being a extra form of progressive nation. So I feel Democrats would welcome it.
I do suppose, simply linking this to the Voting Rights Act resolution, if, , immigration fails within the Home and if it fails due to conservative Republicans, which it most likely will, it reinforces the shortage of variety and the homogeneity of the Republican Occasion. And I feel additionally when it comes to mobilizing Hispanic voters I feel is – could also be an issue in 2014 for Republicans.
CONAN: Ken?
RUDIN: Vin, we all the time discuss concerning the classes that the Republicans might have realized, ought to have realized after 2012, and one in every of them, after all, was you can not ignore a rising demographic actuality on this nation, and that’s the rising Latino vote. And but – and we noticed that, after all, watching the numbers that Mitt Romney didn’t get amongst Latinos in 2012. And so right here we’re again once more. We all know that if the Home doesn’t cope with immigration earlier than the August break and the members return, there’s going to be city corridor conferences the place all people goes to be screaming. That is amnesty. You may’t do that. And so what classes did the Republican Occasion be taught – they realized after 2012 given the stalemate on immigration?
WEBER: Properly, it is laborious to be taught the long-term lesson in politics if you run free election each two years. And the lesson – the clear lesson of the 2012 election is, long run, the Republican Occasion has to do one thing to be aggressive within the Asian group, the Hispanic group and different minority communities. That is not essentially the message concerning the 2014 election. Possibly Anna has a unique view on that. However we now have a decrease turnout, a much less various turnout in off-year elections, and the tendency of off-year elections to need to go in opposition to the occasion of the president in any occasion.
And so I feel, , the lesson has been delay. I feel it is unlucky. You recognize, I feel that the immigration – the passage of an immigration invoice will not be going to ship Hispanic or Asian votes to the Republican Occasion. Let’s be clear about that. However it does do away with one of many large points that forestalls Republicans from with the ability to discuss to these communities about different points on which they’ve extra frequent floor.
These are entrepreneurial communities. These are very patriotic communities as immigrants are usually and these are sometimes extra socially conservative communities. However you possibly can’t get to any of these discussions so long as you may have this immigration invoice looming on the market. It is a bit of like what occurred with the Republican Occasion and the African-American vote after the 1964 election when Barry Goldwater, the usual bearer, upholds the 1964 Civil Rights Act and kind of emblazen within the minds of African-People or the Republicans, even when they agreed on different points, thought-about them second-rate residents.
I do not suppose that is a good evaluation of my occasion, however that’s what folks thought. Properly, you’ve got bought kind of the identical scenario now. A variety of Hispanics are coming to the conclusion it does not matter if we agree with Republicans on social points and taxes and spending and nationalism if they do not suppose we must be right here within the first place. That is the danger for Republicans.
CONAN: We’re speaking with Vin Weber, the previous Republican congressman, now a Republican marketing campaign marketing consultant. Additionally with us is Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. In fact, Political Junkie Ken Rudin is with us. You are listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR Information. And that is an ideal pivot into upcoming elections. We have got a pair this yr, after which, after all, 2014 when Democrats have a troublesome street to hoe with all these seats to defend in the US Senate.
However, Anna, I needed to ask you, we have seen a few particular elections just lately. South Carolina the place a weakened Republican candidate in a closely Republican district managed to win fairly handily. We noticed in Massachusetts a particular election the place a lackluster Democratic candidate received pretty handily in a solidly Democratic state. Does this argue that we will see a wave in some way come this fall and the autumn after?
GREENBERG: Properly, proper now, and clearly it is early as a result of there’s a whole lot of issues that may occur between now and subsequent summer time when issues kind of get extra kind of settled on what the precise temper of the election or the factor…
CONAN: We’ll be right here subsequent summer time so…
GREENBERG: That is true.
CONAN: …get out on that ledge.
GREENBERG: Oh, no, no. However proper now, in the event you take a look at each these particular elections and also you take a look at, , the place public opinion is, issues appear very steady, very established order. There is not a whole lot of proof. Even the Virginia governor’s race proper now, which, , in 2009 was…
CONAN: It must be very aggressive.
GREENBERG: …form of one of many indicators. There’s Coakley after which defeat in Massachusetts after which the governor. It was a, , signal of the wave. However you do not see that. Even within the Virginia governor’s race, it is very, very shut with two arguably flawed candidates. So I do not see an enormous quantity of proof both means. It might clearly shift. We simply launched a congressional battleground ballot by Democracy Corps and confirmed that the general partisan surroundings seems fairly near what it regarded like in 2012.
So this notion that Vin raised, which is true, that always in midterms who need to go in opposition to the occasion of the president, there does not appear to be a whole lot of proof in that. In reality, there appears to be actual erosion within the Republican model round principally obstruction and kind of stopping issues from getting accomplished in Washington. It is changing into an even bigger and larger downside, , pushed by Home Republicans. And, , if immigration reform fails, it is going to be one other piece of proof that that is kind of how they function.
And so possibly that the Republican model changing into so discredited kind of in some methods is a countervailing pressure in opposition to form of the tendency to need to vote in opposition to, , the incumbent president. And I’d additionally add that the financial system is doing higher. Individuals are nonetheless actually hurting, and we can’t – and that is necessary to recollect. However it’s, , attainable the enhancements within the financial system is also a countervailing pressure in opposition to the tendency to need to, , vote in opposition to the incumbent president.
CONAN: And Vin…
WEBER: I feel…
CONAN: Go forward. I did not imply to interrupt.
WEBER: I feel that Anna is correct about these issues. I learn the Democracy Corps evaluation, and it’s a warning sign to Republicans. However there are some developments that reinforce the notion that we will have an election that votes in opposition to the occasion of the president. The president’s approval score is falling. Arguably, there are few correlating components larger to an off-year vote than the president’s approval score.
And the implementation of the well being care invoice doesn’t appear to be going properly. It appears to be more and more unpopular. It is going to be rolled out over the subsequent yr and be an even bigger subject subsequent yr. And there isn’t any proof but that it is something aside from damaging. So, , I am not saying what Anna stated will not be true, however there are different components which say it most likely will probably be a extra regular off-year election which the Republicans will do moderately properly, not a wave election like we noticed in 2010, however an election which the Republicans acquire seats.
CONAN: And do you see any of the difficulties the president has been having these previous few weeks – the IRS, the NSA and all these different issues? Do you suppose any of these are going to have legs?
WEBER: Not individually. I do not suppose any a kind of points goes into the subsequent election as a problem that folks really vote on. I feel it has a common impact of weakening the president and weakening the arguments in favor of optimistic authorities the Democrats should run on. So I feel it helps the Republicans.
GREENBERG: I do not know. I imply, I feel that they are all completely different from one another. So whereas the NSA subject is an issue, for instance, on the left. If you happen to take a look at the American public, majority favor – in essence, favor this system. I consider that there is a stability between privateness and safety.
CONAN: Together with most likely a majority of Republicans.
GREENBERG: Proper. So I feel that it’s important to distinguish IRS from NSA. I do not suppose they’re all the identical. However, look, I feel that the proof is fairly clear that it hasn’t actually have an effect on his rankings all that a lot. There hasn’t been a direct influence that we have seen.
CONAN: After we come again, extra with Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber and with Political Junkie Ken Rudin. If you would like to ask Ken Rudin some questions concerning the elections of 2014 and the elections of, properly, 2016, give us a name, 800-989-8255. Electronic mail us: [email protected]. Stick with us. I am Neal Conan. It is the TALK OF THE NATION from NPR Information.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)
CONAN: We’re right here on our final Political Junkie Wednesday with Ken Rudin, Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber, looking forward to what’s coming down the street for Republicans and Democrats in 2014 and 2016. And we will have questions for Ken too, 800-989-8255. Electronic mail: [email protected].
Vin Weber, Republicans thought they’d an actual shot to take management of the US Senate final November. They’ve one other clear shot at it in 2014. Do you suppose they’d get it accomplished this time?
WEBER: I feel they will come shut. They, , we clearly gave away sufficient seats within the final election in order that we must be a lot nearer to having a majority now. There’s doubtlessly sufficient aggressive seats for the Republicans to take management this time, however they’d should just about win all of these aggressive seats and that is not going. I feel that their – I feel Republicans will acquire, , possibly three seats, possibly 4 seats, one thing like that. That might be a reasonably sport. However management nonetheless is a bit of far-off until we really see that wave election creating that we have been speaking about, however which isn’t on the horizon proper now.
CONAN: Anna?
GREENBERG: I feel it will be laborious to take again the Senate. I feel the map – in the event you simply take a look at every state, it is laborious to see a situation the place it occurs. After which additionally, going again to the dialog we have been simply having, I feel the problem surroundings is actually powerful for Republicans. The model is not critical, bother for lots of causes. The…
CONAN: I heard what you stated. However in these circumstances, do not particular person candidates matter an enormous quantity?
GREENBERG: They do, for positive, however the nationwide surroundings issues too. What the precise dialog is about issues too. So in the event you take well being care, for instance, I really suppose it’s not the case that – opinion about ACA is altering. In reality, it is extremely steady. And you have examples in states like California the place you are beginning to see the legislation work and truly have some good outcomes. I feel it is very unsure if Republicans will have the ability to run in opposition to Democrats on ACA, the federal government takeover deficit, IRS, et cetera, which what they need to do.
CONAN: Inexpensive Care Act, the Obamacare.
GREENBERG: Precisely. When it begins – really they carried out and, , to this point, it is really trying, , fairly good. So, sure, you are proper, particular person candidates matter, however I additionally suppose the nationwide surroundings issues. And it is not clear to me that it is an overwhelmingly favorable one in the direction of Republicans.
CONAN: And, Ken – I am sorry, Vin. You needed to say one thing?
WEBER: Properly, I simply – we respect one another, however I do not agree with that. I feel ACA continues to be a superb voting subject for Republicans. And I feel on an entire vary of points the general public is lining up on the Republicans facet. The general public continues to assist spending discount versus stimulus. And I feel on a spread of points, the Republican place goes to be fairly good. I agree with Anna, the Republican model is struggling proper now, but it surely’s not as a result of – crucial place that the folks care about on points is actually out of step with Republicans.
GREENBERG: Oh, Vin, however background checks, abortion, immigration, I imply, you simply title the checklist of points that each the state and the nationwide stage as a result of, clearly, the – really the largest battleground is the governors’ races, I feel, extra so than the Senate races. And, persistently, the Republicans are out of step with most individuals on these points. And with the financial system getting higher, it is simply laborious to see how, , the way you get traction round the place this nation going the place the narrative is when it is on each single subject on the flawed facet of the place individuals are.
CONAN: Vin, you need to come again after which we’ll transfer alongside?
WEBER: No. We – no, we simply do not agree on that, however there isn’t any level in dwelling on it for much longer.
(LAUGHTER)
GREENBERG: OK.
WEBER: We’ll discover out subsequent yr.
GREENBERG: OK.
CONAN: And, Ken, as you take a look at the congressional map, the states have so fastidiously outlined these districts to make them protected Democrat or protected Republican. It is laborious to see an entire bunch swinging in some way.
RUDIN: Yeah. A variety of Democrats have been speaking about that the longest time, saying that the best way they redistricted after the 2010 elections or after the 2010 census that these Republicans, for essentially the most half, these districts could also be locked in some way Democrat or Republican by the subsequent census, 2020. So it is laborious to think about, laborious to foresee the Republicans shedding the bulk within the Home earlier than then.
CONAN: Now, we will ask you to step out in an excellent thinner and better ledge, 2016. Anna Greenberg, the Democratic Occasion has a presumptive front-runner, after all, the identical presumptive front-runner they’d in 2008 who didn’t get the nomination – Hillary Clinton, after all.
GREENBERG: True. But when Hillary Clinton have been to run, which I hope she does, she is going to utterly clear the first discipline. There could be a Dennis Kucinich or somebody like that who decides or Ralph Nader who decides. Properly, after all, he can be an impartial candidate, however she’ll clear the sphere. And truly, , and you will have, I assume, a reasonably contentious Republican main discipline.
And so really, , if she have been to run the marketing campaign proper, she would have a whole lot of time to construct the form of marketing campaign that she would need to run whereas the Republicans have a contentious main. So I feel that she’s very properly positioned. She’ll clearly get the nomination, and he or she’ll properly positioned really to win, I feel, in 2016.
CONAN: And, Vin Weber, is there a Republican who will not be working for president?
(LAUGHTER)
WEBER: We now have a whole lot of candidates working, and I anticipate we’ll have a reasonably broad discipline. I do not know if Anna is correct or flawed about Hillary Clinton clearing the sphere. She might, but it surely appears unlikely to me that an non-incumbent president can clear the sphere. Anyone goes to emerge. Anyone goes to make a problem out of it. And the notion that she’s, , heading ahead towards a coronation, which is possibly not honest towards her, however that is what – that is not going to assist her. It is going to appeal to folks to an opponent. I am not saying she’ll lose the nomination. I simply do not suppose it may fairly be the clear discipline that Anna predicted.
On the Republican facet, I feel we will have a whole lot of candidates. Probably the most attention-grabbing factor in my thoughts is what seems to be the emergence of Rand Paul as a critical presidential candidate. I do know his father. We have all watched his father in presidential politics for a few years, and he all the time had an influence. However there was by no means a risk that he might win the Republican nomination. At the very least I did not ever suppose there was. However Rand Paul is trying like a candidate who’s going to be a critical candidate nationwide.
So we add – Jeb Bush seems as if he could also be attending to the race. He would clearly be a critical candidate. Governor Christie’s most likely headed towards an enormous re-election victory within the very blue state of New Jersey. That’ll make him a critical candidate. And we’ll see how Senator Rubio emerges from the immigration battle, however he nonetheless has a reservoir of enchantment within the Republican Occasion. And different those that we have not talked about quite a bit like Governor Mike Pence of Indiana who, I feel, finally needs to take a look at working for president. A variety of potential candidates, all of them, for my part, have some strengths. And, after all, each candidate has a weak spot too.
GREENBERG: However a part of the issue with the Republican Occasion, which, once more, is illustrated by what I stated round being on the flawed facet on marriage, abortion, immigration, you continue to have an extremely conservative Republican base. Until we noticed within the final Republican main the place everybody was pushed very far proper, I feel you are still going to have that very same dynamic this time round, which, once more, when it comes to Hillary Clinton, I feel, positions her very, very properly in distinction to the Republican discipline.
CONAN: Ken? Shortly.
RUDIN: Simply rapidly on this. Marco Rubio, who’s a Tea Occasion favourite when he was elected in 2010, is now be – now seen as a Judas and a traitor for his function within the Gang of Eight on immigration. In order that simply reveals how a as soon as Tea Occasion hero has moved into the institution, reveals how a lot the occasion has moved to the proper.
CONAN: Properly, Washington corrupts. Everyone is aware of that. Ken, Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber, it has been nice to have you ever on this program for – I do not bear in mind how lengthy it’s – eight, 9, 10 years. However thanks a lot. You’ve got contributed a lot to our understanding, and we actually do respect it, and particularly for taking, , preserving away that air time from Ken.
(LAUGHTER)
GREENBERG: Properly, I can not even let you know what a privilege and honor it has been to be on this present and what I’ve realized from you and the way a lot enjoyable it has been. And I’m actually, actually, very, very unhappy. So thanks.
CONAN: Properly, Anna Greenberg. And, Vin, due to you too.
WEBER: Properly, I need to echo what Anna stated, and I additionally need to say I am going to miss being on with Anna although we do not agree on a whole lot of politics.
GREENBERG: I am going to miss you, too, Vin.
(LAUGHTER)
GREENBERG: She’s about pretty much as good as they arrive, and it has been each an honor and a pleasure and a whole lot of enjoyable.
CONAN: Vin Weber, a associate at Mercury Public Affairs, former Republican consultant from Minnesota, with us at present from Des Moines Public Radio. Anna Greenberg is senior vp and principal at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Analysis. Ken, you bought time for a few questions from callers?
RUDIN: I do.
CONAN: Yeah. All proper. Let’s have a look at. Let’s go to Tally(ph), Tally with us from Marion, Iowa.
TALLY: Hello. Thanks each. I like the present. I puzzled, in your opinion, whom within the Senate is – I do not need to be cynical, however who do you see as being imperiled by the 2014 election? Do you suppose anybody is actually in danger and, in that case, who?
CONAN: Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska, off the highest of my head.
RUDIN: Properly, yeah. I imply, it seems like in the event you’re trying on the Republicans who’re working, it does not imply like every Republican is actually at risk. I imply, there’s some query about whether or not Thad Cochran runs in Mississippi. Some questions on that. However it looks as if the Democrats are most endangered. Proper now, it seems just like the Republicans take two open seats in South Dakota the place Tim Johnson is retiring, in West Virginia the place Jay Rockefeller is retiring. After which it’s important to fear concerning the Mark Begichs and the Mark – Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Prior of Arkansas, maybe Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, possibly Kay Hagan of North Carolina. These are incumbent Democrats who should look out for his or her re-election troubles.
CONAN: Tally, thanks very a lot for the decision. Let’s go subsequent to Jason, Jason with us from Palo Alto.
JASON: Hey. I need to simply ask Ken who ought to Hillary Clinton choose in 2016 ought to she determine to run for a working mate. And most significantly, I like your present. I am sorry to see you each go away. You are the first motive I donate to KQED Radio. Thanks a lot.
CONAN: Properly, Jason, thanks for that.
RUDIN: Properly, thanks. They have been speaking about Wendy Lewis – Wendy Davis. There are already Hillary Clinton-Wendy Davis bumper stickers out for 2016. You recognize when…
CONAN: Justin(ph), by the best way, simply despatched us a tweet. Clinton-Rudin 2016?
RUDIN: I am not sufficiently old to be a vp, no. And moreover I must be a Democrat. I’m not a Democrat. I am not a Republican. I’m the folks. Sure. Sure. However anyway, , we talked about – I bear in mind when Howard Dean was discussing who his working mate can be within the fall of 2003. And, after all, he by no means survived Iowa-New Hampshire. It is untimely. I agree with Anna that she is obvious frontrunner. However, , proper now, maybe the Martin O’Malleys of the world – possibly they run for vp to get a leg up on future elections.
CONAN: And yet another fast one. That is from Mark(ph), Mark with us from Portland.
MARK: Sure, howdy. Thanks for taking my name. I like the present. My query is, provided that the demographics within the nation seem like closely skewed in each instructions – rural, conservative, city, liberal – and provided that the city populations are growing and provided that the agricultural populations seem like reducing, does not that inform the Republican Occasion or bode – or, , ship a transparent message to the Republican Occasion that main change is required. I have been a Republican my entire life, and I see the occasion at presidential stage – Senate stage, I feel is useless. My prediction is we’re not going to take one other presidential race. The Senate’s not going to alter palms for a very long time. And I would like to listen to your feedback on that.
RUDIN: Properly, principally, the strongest state that the Republicans have for the presidency has been Texas, and we’re very conscious, as you level out, and as Vin has identified, that the demographics are altering there. So if the Republican Occasion needs to have a tough line in immigration, that might simply push Texas to be a blue state before later. And I assume the query is, because the demographics are altering, how do the Republican Occasion cope with that with these altering numbers?
CONAN: Attention-grabbing, although. You considered that, and attention-grabbing dynamic on the farm invoice, which was defeated simply final week since you had a revolt within the Republican Occasion, which was often reliably agricultural in favor in subsidies to farmers. And, properly, the Tea Occasion wing of the Home Republicans stated completely not. The Democrats opposed. They stated we want an even bigger lower for meals stamps. Democrats voted no as a result of they thought the lower was too large for meals stamps.
RUDIN: Properly, look what is going on on within the immigration invoice. I imply, there a whole lot of Republicans within the Home who say it is not robust sufficient. In order that they have this Corker-Hoeven modification that handed overwhelmingly at present.
CONAN: The surge to the border.
RUDIN: Proper. It doubles the U.S. Border Patrol to 40,000 brokers. It is 700 miles of latest border fencing. There have been drone plane. There’s infrared floor sensors. It going to price $25 billion. And Republicans within the Home say that is amnesty. So if that is not robust sufficient for Republicans within the Home, how do they acknowledge that rising hole they’ve with Latino voters and different minorities?
CONAN: Political Junkie Ken Rudin is with us. You are listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR Information. And, Ken, in spite of everything this time, it is time for us to say goodbye.
RUDIN: OK. See you, Neal. Bye.
CONAN: Yeah.
RUDIN: Properly, I need to – I wrote some issues down as a result of I did not need to neglect something. However one thing, we have been collectively – due to DOMA – no – since 2006, the Political Junkie phase has been on TALK OF THE NATION. And we have touched lots of people principally inside the legislation. However, look, we made politics enjoyable. We made it entertaining and we made it, I feel, a must-listen present on NPR. Sue Goodwin, our government producer, talked from the start that – she all the time stated that Junkie was alternative listening of individuals – I am sorry – appointment…
CONAN: Appointment listening.
RUDIN: …appointment listening, and other people principally deliberate their Wednesdays on a whole lot of what we did. So I need to thank – I imply, there’s so many individuals to thank. I need to thank Sue Goodwin. She believed in Political Junkie phase from the start. I need to thank Laura Lee, our superb Political Junkie producer. She is completely superb. It is a tremendous TALK OF THE NATION employees. I need to thank the hundreds and hundreds of people that write to me day by day. I feel you have been nice. I feel you have been horrible. That is what works. That is what does not work.
We discuss this being in a dialog. It is a dialog, and I actually, actually respect the chance. And, Neal, I will miss you great. I feel – I simply love our rapport backwards and forwards – what we do and I feel it really works. And I simply am grateful for these final seven years working with you.
CONAN: The Wednesday’s first hour has been the spotlight of my skilled working week, each single week. And there’s nothing extra annoying that Ken Rudin on trip. Properly, possibly Ken Rudin not on trip. However the truth is the Political Junkie phase, as you say, has actually scored successful with lots of people within the viewers. And there was great response, and I have been doing any variety of exit interviews with member stations over the previous week and other people saying that is the factor they will miss. And, properly, I say what, I am chopped liver? Anyway, Ken, it has been actually nice, and we do should thank Sue, who’s been so nice and gave us the chance, additionally, together with NPR administration to take the present on the street to varied locations.
RUDIN: These Political Junkie street reveals in Orlando, in Saint Louis, and we went so far as D.C. (unintelligible).
CONAN: Completely. (Unintelligible), a few entire blocks away.
RUDIN: However in every single place I’m going, each time I discuss to folks, they are saying they love the Political Junkie. They love TALK OF THE NATION. And so they – and it is going to be missed. And even I’ll miss it.
(LAUGHTER)
CONAN: Ken, thanks very a lot. We additionally should thank the numerous friends who suffered to return on this system and listen to unhealthy jokes with us. And – properly, folks like Anna Greenberg and Vin Weber, who had been right here with us all alongside. And there is yet another particular person we now have to thank who’s been a key member of this solid all alongside. I’ll say, I am Neal Conan, and this TALK OF THE NATION from NPR Information. And due to Roger McGuinn.
(SOUNDBITE OF SONG, “I WANT TO GROW UP TO BE A POLITICIAN”)
ROGER MCGUINN: (Singing) I need to develop as much as be a politician and take over this stunning land. I need to develop as much as be a politician and be the previous U.S. of A.’s primary man. I am going to all the time be powerful, however I am going to by no means be scary. I need to shoot weapons or butter my bread. I am going to work within the cities or conservate the prairies. And you may consider the longer term’s forward. I am going to give the younger the proper to vote as quickly as they mature. However spare the rod and spoil the kid to assist them really feel safe.
(Singing) And if I win Election Day I would provide you with a job. I am going to signal a invoice to assist the poor to point out I am not a snob. I am going to open my door, I am charging no admission. And you may be certain I am going to provide you with my hand. I need to develop as much as be a politician and take over this stunning land. I am going to make you glad you bought me in with every thing I do. And I am going to defend till the tip the previous crimson white and blue. I need to develop as much as be a politician and take over this stunning land. And take over this stunning land. And take over this stunning land.
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