Tomorrow’s Top 25 projects college football rankings after Week 4

When you spend all week discussing the ranked-on-ranked matchups on the college football schedule, you just know a shake-up is coming to the college football rankings. Yes, with a half-dozen games between teams ranked in the AP Top 25 poll, we are likely to see one of our biggest weeks of upheaval, and the changes come not just as a result of those top-tier collisions but also from unexpected upsets that are going to challenge voters’ preseason positions on top teams. 

There will be a rankings shift after Florida toppled Ole Miss and Oregon picked up a road win at USC. But Week 4 also saw Penn State and Louisville lose to unranked teams at home, and reigning champion Indiana survive an upset scare. All of it provides necessary information for AP voters as they negotiate the final spots on their ballots, which will be submitted on Sunday for the new college football rankings. 

The headline change in a week of change is going to be Florida’s rise after a 52-28 win against No. 4 Ole Miss in The Swamp. The Gators found the end zone fast and early, riding star running back Jadan Baugh to the signature win of the early Jon Sumrall era. The presence of Sumrall as a Year 1 coach in Gainesville sets the stage for Florida’s return to the top of the sport, as he’s already set to put the program in a position it hasn’t seen since the Dan Mullen era. We project a rise for Florida from No. 21 up to the top 10, which would mark the Gators’ first top-10 ranking in the AP poll since September 2021. For all the hand-wringing about what Florida could and could not accomplish over the last four years, Sumrall has hit the ground running and immediately delivered a product that meets their championship standard. 

Elsewhere in the rankings, we will find some fallout from that result on the Ole Miss side, plus some two-way movement after Oregon’s road win at USC. Because after a couple of weeks with stagnant positions in the poll, Week 4 and the arrival of conference play have finally provided some real results that spark debates and make things interesting up and down the top 25.   

Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 poll will look on Sunday after Week 4 scores and results in college football: 

1. Texas (Last week — 1): The Longhorns’ performance was far from flawless and at times offensive, but ultimately surviving a tough SEC road test with a win against ranked Tennessee shouldn’t dislodge them from the No. 1 spot. The collection of first-place votes (58-of-69) may start to wane, but there’s not another obvious contender for the top spot set to topple Texas as long as the team continues to win. 

2. Georgia (2): We finally got to see Gunner Stockton and the Georgia offense face some real resistance against Oklahoma‘s defense, but the total competition in all three phases of the game was so heavily slanted towards the Bulldogs it didn’t even matter. Stockton had more incompletions (11) than he had totaled in the first three games combined (7), but the team still scored 41 points and won by four touchdowns against a quality SEC opponent. That speaks to not only the high level of play from a hungry Kirby Smart team, but also the depth of the offensive woes for Oklahoma here in this first month of the season. 

3. Notre Dame (3): The Fighting Irish cruised against Purdue, notching their 14th straight win by 10+ points. That ties the longest FBS streak in the past 10 seasons and extends the longest streak of double-digit wins in school history. CJ Carr had a productive day with four total touchdowns, and Notre Dame held serve from a rankings perspective with its 49-10 win. 

4. Miami (6): We’re not projecting a ton of rankings impact from a lopsided win against Central Michigan. Some shuffling around the top 10 could lead to small adjustments, but for now the Hurricanes might be stuck between No. 6 and No. 3 until that early November showdown with Notre Dame. As long as Miami keeps winning, it will stay within striking distance of real consideration for No. 1, but it will take that signature win to make a real move to the top of the poll. 

5. Florida (21): A 4-0 record with a top-five win is going to get top-five consideration, and the question is whether the Gators have shown enough to dislodge the AP voters’ preseason expectations for Indiana. Florida has exceeded expectations in a way that the Hoosiers probably have not, and that could open the door to breaking up a logjam inside the top 10 above Alabama. Florida running back Jadan Baugh continues to build his Heisman Trophy argument with 142 yards and three touchdowns in a massive program win. As we mentioned earlier, Jon Sumrall has quickly put the Gators back into contention like we haven’t seen since the beginning of the decade. 

6. Indiana (5): The margins between the No. 4 and No. 6 teams in last week’s balloting (Ole Miss, Indiana, Miami) were thin enough to think there could be some swaps based on performance alone. The Hoosiers did not dominate Northwestern on Friday night as many expected, and the upset scare could lead to some waning confidence in their position as one of the top teams in the country. The Hoosiers probably won’t give up a spot to Ohio State given their undefeated record, but it’s not out of the question.   

7. Ohio State (7): Your weekly Jeremiah Smith highlight includes a career-high four touchdown receptions and another move up in the Ohio State record books. Smith is now tied with David Boston for second-most career receiving touchdowns (34) in school history, and the performance makes him just the second Buckeye to have 200+ receiving yards and 4+ receiving touchdowns in a game (Terry Glenn, 1995).  

8. Alabama (8): The Crimson Tide offense continue to absolutely cook, putting up 40+ points for the fourth straight game as Keelon Russell has now ascended from recently named starter to top-tier SEC quarterback. Russell racked up five total touchdowns in the 49-19 win against the Gamecocks, which will provide at least some debate regarding a move up into that top-five range with other undefeated teams from the SEC. 

9. BYU (9): The Cougars were off in Week 4 and will be back in action next Saturday at TCU. 

10. Ole Miss (4): The head-to-head win against LSU makes for a sensible and comfortable landing spot on the ballot for many voters as they adjust Ole Miss in the wake of the loss at Florida. The Rebels might not have had the fourth-best team in the country in the eyes of a power rating, and that was evident in being a betting underdog against a team outside the top 20. But its ranking still hangs on one of the better resumes in the country and could keep Ole Miss from falling out of the top 10.  

11. LSU (10): Lane Kiffin’s group needed a bounce back after last week’s loss at Ole Miss and found a nice landing against Texas A&M, wearing down the Aggies for a win that should solidify the Tigers’ position as a top-10 contender. The issue, as we noted above, is the head-to-head loss to the Rebels, pushing down their stock inside the top 15. 

12. Texas Tech (11): The Red Raiders improved to 4-0 with a win against Sam Houston that brought highs and lows. The defense got to celebrate two pick-sixes from the same player thanks to Austin Romaine, while the offense overcame three interceptions from Will Hammond to score 49 points. The final score still looks good enough for most voters, even if the performance might spark some re-evaluation of their standing in this range of the rankings. 

13. Utah (15): The Utes have gotten off to some tremendous starts this season, leading by 20+ at halftime of all four games during their 4-0 start. This is not a team poised to make a major move up after holding on to beat Iowa State 31-17 on the road in Week 4, but a team to monitor with a couple of favorable spots ahead before hosting BYU on Nov. 7. 

14. Iowa (17): Could the Hawkeyes jump ahead of Utah? That’s the real question in terms of upward momentum in the rankings for a team and a coach that had one of those moments in the Big House they’ll remember forever. It was Iowa’s first win at Michigan in 16 years, and the 91-yard touchdown march will forever be a part of this season’s lore. The issue, from a rankings perspective, is the massive gap in voting points between Utah, Iowa and those teams on the edge of the top 10. 

15. Oregon (20): After a couple of weeks wondering what’s wrong with Oregon, the Ducks endured a scary injury to Dante Moore and found ways to win in the second half at USC. Battling through adversity added to what was already one of Oregon’s better performances of the season, and that should spark a respectable bump up in the rankings. 

16. USC (12): The fact that Oregon has remained ranked throughout its early-season doldrums should be good news for USC, which doesn’t have a ton of quality wins to bolster its rankings argument but certainly has looked better than most teams in college football. Falling short against the Ducks might not sting that much in the eyes of the voters, though the head-to-head result now becomes the Trojans’ ranking anchor when ballots are sorting out complicated resumes in the middle of their top 25 ballots. 

17. Tennessee (14): Two things will help Tennessee when it comes to keeping their status as a top 25 team after the loss to Texas. First is the fact that the Vols played the No. 1 team in the country down to the final possessions and lost by a field goal, perhaps proving more to voters about their quality than the three wins prior. But the other piece of this is the massive turnover that will create a soft cushion near the bottom of the rankings. With a handful of teams set to drop out of the rankings, it’s hard to see Tennessee being below No. 20 when the poll resets.   

18. Mississippi State (24): The Bulldogs are set for a boost in the rankings after emerging as the winner of a high-level back-and-forth with Missouri. Quarterback Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns in the 31-24 win, which now has Mississippi State at 4-0 in back-to-back seasons under Jeff Lebby. Most importantly, outlasting the Tigers means the Bulldogs are 2-0 in conference play for the first time since 2014. 

19. SMU (22): The Mustangs took care of business after a closer-than-expected start, pulling away for a 10-point win against Missouri State. SMU’s spot in the rankings could be tenuous in the wake of Louisville’s loss to Wake Forest, but for now the AP voters won’t rush to kick this group out of the top 25. 

20. Houston (25): The Cougars should be set for a slight bump up in the rankings after a 14-point win at Georgia Southern in a Homecoming-style game for Willie Fritz in Statesboro. The celebration of his time with the Eagles included six total touchdowns for Connor Weigman (four passing, two rushing) and a performance that solidifies this group as a top-25 team.   

21. Boise State (NR): This is the second time in four weeks that Boise State has walked into what many consider the “Group of Six Game of the Week” and walked out with a double-digit win. This time it was Western Michigan, the reigning MAC champs and recent challenger to Michigan in Ann Arbor, and Spencer Danielson’s crew shined in the spotlight.  

22. Oklahoma State (NR): That Week 2 win against Oregon is going to boost Oklahoma State’s argument to jump into the top 25, even if it might not be enough to slot the Cowboys ahead of the Ducks in the consensus rankings. The Cowboys improved to 3-1 with a competitive and impressive win at West Virginia, but the season-opening loss to Tulsa remains a weight that’s difficult to shake for many voters. 

23. Wisconsin (NR): Voters might not have expected to be in this spot three weeks ago, but if you look at the Badgers’ resume, this is a 3-1 team with a win at Penn State, and its only loss is against top-five Notre Dame. Voters who favor undefeated records will look elsewhere (Nebraska, UCLA, Virginia Tech or Duke), but those who want to give Luke Fickell’s group a boost in the wake of the massive road win will have the quality win and quality loss argument to bolster their Wisconsin support.   

24. UCLA (NR): Bob Chesney’s Bruins made a bit of a statement with their thorough takedown of Maryland in College Park on Saturday. UCLA’s defense bottled up Maryland and forced five turnovers on the way to a 52-3 win that both brings about hot seat conversations for Mike Locksley but also debate as to Chesney’s candidacy as one of the most impactful Year 1 coaches in this early part of the season. 

25. Nebraska (NR): The Cornhuskers might have seen their former quarterback helping Oregon survive on the road, but they also saw Matt Rhule improve to 4-0 on the 2026 season with a win at Michigan State. Nebraska had just two voting points last week, but after picking up their first power conference win of the season could get some attention from voters looking to fill out their ballots with undefeated power conference teams.

Projected to drop out: No. 13 Penn State, No. 16 Louisville, No. 18 Michigan, No. 19 Missouri, No. 23 Texas A&M