Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Nationals righty against Padres at plus odds

Two of the top National League contenders collide for the first of a three-game set when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers on Friday at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are 58-39 and begin the second half with the best record in the National League. As for the Brewers, they’re 56-40 and have won eight of their last 10 games. They sit in second place in the NL Central, trailing the Cubs by just one game.

Tyler Glasnow (1-0, 3.52 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers while Milwaukee counters with Quinn Priester (7-2, 3.55). 

Sportsbooks have set Glasnow’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5, while Priester’s is 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Glasnow Over 5.5 as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale with a projection of 6.2 punchouts for the veteran right-hander.

The model has found even better value elsewhere across Friday’s loaded 15-game schedule, as there are three pitcher strikeout player props it has rated at 4.5 stars, with one of those three coming in at plus money. 

Jonathan Cannon Over 3.5 strikeouts (-137) vs. Pirates (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

This game may not jump out as much-watch given the White Sox and Pirates are two of the worst teams in baseball, but the model sees value in betting on the Chicago right-hander, who is 3-7 with a 4.44 ERA. Cannon has pitched well of late, going 1-0 with a 3.38 over the last month, including a five-strikeout outing against the Guardians in his last start on July 11. The SportsLine Projection model also notes that Cannon has gone Over his pitcher strikeouts target in four of his last five games when confronting teams with a top-third defense. On Friday, Cannon faces a Pirates club that averages 8.71 strikeouts per game at the plate, the eighth most in all of baseball.

Michael Soroka Over 4.5 strikeouts (+118) vs. Padres (6:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

This is a reasonable total for the veteran Nationals right-hander (3-7, 5.35), who has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in eight of 13 his starts this season. Soroka also has gone Over his pitcher strikeout total in four of his last five home starts, averaging 6.4 strikeouts per game. According to Baseball Savant, Soroka’s strikeout percentage of 26.0% ranks in the 76th percentile in the majors and is a career-best mark. This one comes in at plus money, too.

Brandon Walter Over 4.5 strikeouts (-138) vs. Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts

The model is big on Walter against the Mariners on Friday. The Astros lefty, who is 1-2 with a 3.98 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise for the American League West leaders this season, and he has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in six of his seven starts this year. That includes a seven-strikeout performance in his last start on July 9 against the Guardians, and his career-high of nine punchouts came on June 15 against Minnesota. On Friday, he faces a Mariners club that strikes out 8.82 times per game, which is the fourth-highest average in all of baseball.