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- Critics rated Michael 38% on Rotten Tomatoes, while audiences gave 97% and a CinemaScore A-minus.
- Marketing raised projections from roughly $50M to $70M; Lionsgate later forecast $90 to $100M domestic; Universal projected $111M overseas.
- Michael cost about $200M, financed by Lionsgate, Universal Pictures, and the Michael Jackson estate; Lionsgate spent over $50M marketing.
- Film spurred streaming and Broadway MJ interest; the Cascio family sued alleging abuse, the estate called it a money grab.
“Michael” is a megahit.
In one of the biggest disconnects between reviews and ticket sales in memory — certainly for a non-sequel — the Michael Jackson biopic “Michael” overcame animosity from critics and was on pace to collect more than $200 million worldwide in its opening weekend. Lionsgate, which produced the PG-13 movie, released the box office estimate on Saturday. It based the tally on actual and projected turnout for Wednesday through Sunday.
“If you give audiences what they want, they will come,” Adam Fogelson, chairman of the Lionsgate Motion Picture Group, said in a statement. Lionsgate is expected to announce plans to make a sequel (or two) in short order.
Mr. Fogelson’s comment was partly a response to critics, who savaged “Michael” for ending its storytelling in 1988 — before the first child molestation accusations against Mr. Jackson surfaced. “Which is kind of like ending an O.J. Simpson biopic with him winning the Heisman Trophy,” the critic Sean Burns wrote in a review on Tuesday.
Box office analysts said that reviews criticizing “Michael” for leaving out the molestation claims (along with related media coverage of the film) almost certainly increased ticket sales, certainly for fans but also for families. “If you didn’t want any of that material and/or didn’t want to be depressed by a Michael Jackson biopic, then those pans read like raves,” the analyst Scott Mendelson wrote in his subscription newsletter on Friday.
Reviews were 38 percent positive, according to Rotten Tomatoes, which resulted in a “rotten” rating from the site. In contrast, the Rotten Tomatoes audience score stood at 97 percent positive on Saturday. And ticket buyers gave “Michael” an A-minus grade in CinemaScore exit polls.
A month ago, “Michael” was on track to collect about $50 million in its first weekend in theaters in the United States and Canada, with analysts basing that estimate on advance ticket sales and surveys that track moviegoer interest. As Lionsgate’s marketing campaign for the film increased in intensity over the past two weeks, opening-weekend expectations rose to roughly $70 million.
On Saturday, Lionsgate said “Michael” was “roaring” toward $90 million to $100 million in domestic ticket sales, setting a record — even after adjusting for inflation — for a musical biopic. “Straight Outta Compton” has held the record since 2015. It opened to $60 million, or nearly $85 million in today’s dollars, and ultimately grossed $200 million (or an adjusted $283 million).
All in, “Michael” cost roughly $200 million to make, with costs paid by Lionsgate, Universal Pictures and the Michael Jackson estate. Universal Pictures released “Michael” outside North America, except in Japan, where Kino Films paid a hefty sum for the rights. Universal said on Saturday that “Michael” was on pace to collect $111 million in its territories over the weekend. The film will be released in Japan in June.
“Michael” was directed by Antoine Fuqua (“Training Day”). It stars Mr. Jackson’s nephew, Jaafar Jackson, in his acting debut.
Lionsgate spent more than $50 million to market the movie in North America. The studio designed the advertising campaign to tap into nostalgia for Michael Jackson’s talent — “joyful moments in our lives that we associate with his music,” as the studio put it last week. In particular, Lionsgate attempted to mobilize Black moviegoers. One successful stunt involved teaming with marching bands from historically Black colleges and universities. Lionsgate also went after teenagers with advertising that played up Mr. Jackson’s dreams of stardom as a young boy.
“Michael,” of course, has prompted a surge of interest in Mr. Jackson’s song catalog. (Streaming numbers have been rising rapidly on Spotify.) Ticket sales have also increased for “MJ,” a stage musical that has been playing on Broadway since 2022 and is touring the United States.
The movie has also brought new challenges to Mr. Jackson’s name and posthumous businesses, however. Four members of the Cascio family, who had a long association with Mr. Jackson, filed a lawsuit in February saying that the star repeatedly sexually assaulted them when they were children. They detailed their claims in an interview with The New York Times on Friday.
The estate has called their suit “a desperate money grab,” and noted that the Cascio family members had long publicly defended Jackson and denied he had ever harmed them.
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