Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement already faces challenges

(CNN) — In the past few days, the Middle East has witnessed an unprecedented US airstrike on Iran with its most powerful non-nuclear weapons, an Iranian retaliatory strike on the largest US air base in the region, to an apparent truce and ceasefire that many hope will see Iran and Israel end their hostilities that have set the world on edge.

The region and the wider world watched warily as events unfolded overnight into Tuesday, but with a degree of optimism as daylight broke in the region that what US President Donald Trump called the “12 Day War” may be over.

“THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social account.

In the hours following, Israel accused Iran of launching fresh missiles and vowed to retaliate. Tehran denied violating the truce, but the ceasefire has been left in a precarious position.

Trump lashed out as his truce appeared to falter, criticizing both sides and warning Israel in a social media post: “DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS.”

Here’s the situation Tuesday in the Middle East.

The ceasefire deal

On Monday evening in Washington, the US president announced the ceasefire.

“It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE,” Trump said in a social media post.

Trump said the ceasefire would be phased in, with Iran ending attacks on Israel first, then Israel stopping its attacks on Iran 12 hours later. But the exact timing of those events was unclear.

During the negotiations, Trump communicated directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff negotiated the terms, through direct and indirect channels, with the Iranians, a senior White House official told CNN.

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani secured Iran’s agreement on Monday, a diplomat briefed on the talks told CNN, finally allowing Trump to announce the ceasefire on social media.

Iranian state media reported, however, that Trump sought the ceasefire deal “in a begging-like manner” after the attack on the US air base in Qatar.

Around the time Iran was supposed to have stopped its attacks under the Trump timeline, its missiles hit Israel, killing at least four civilians, according to Israeli officials.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military claimed to have intercepted two missiles from Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the country would “respond with force.” However, a senior Iranian security official denied that any missiles had been fired since the truce went into effect and warned Israel against violating it.

The situation appeared to have angered Trump, who was critical of both sides, but reserved his harshest condemnation for Israel.

“We have two countries that have been fighting for so hard and so long they don’t know what the fuck they are doing,” a furious Trump said, accusing each of violating the truce he announced the night earlier.

“Israel, as soon as we made the deal they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I’ve never seen before,” he said as he departed Washington for a NATO summit in the Netherlands.

The president affirmed he did not believe the ceasefire was broken and continued his censure in a social media post that appeared shortly after he departed the White House on Marine One.

“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! “ Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Shortly after, Israel struck a radar site north of Tehran but refrained from further strikes after Netanyahu spoke to Trump, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

A White House source told CNN that Trump spoke to Netanyahu Tuesday morning and was “exceptionally firm and direct.”

Iran fires on biggest US base in region

Just hours before Trump’s ceasefire announcement on Monday, Iran fired about a dozen short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest US military installation in the Middle East.

But Tehran tipped both the US and Qatar that the strike was coming, and air defenses, including Patriot missile batteries, were able to intercept all but one of the incoming Iranian missiles, according to US and Qatari officials. No deaths or injuries were reported in Qatar.

In a social media post, Trump thanked Iran for warning the missile attack was coming.

“Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,” Trump said.

“Tehran’s choice to limit its retaliation and deescalate the crisis is rational on their part given overwhelming US strength and Iranian weakness,” said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities.

What about Iran’s nuclear program?

Israel’s contention that Iran would soon be able to build a nuclear weapon was the impetus for the conflict, which began with Israel Defense Forces strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and against Iran’s military and nuclear program scientists on the night of June 12-13.

Israel has also claimed to have killed multiple high-profile Iranian nuclear scientists over the past 12 days.

Trump followed on Israel’s airstrikes by ordering an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, including a fleet of US B-2 bombers, to drop 14 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs on two deeply buried sites in Iran, the first time weapon had been used in combat.

Trump administration officials said Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which they said was just days away from the ability to make a nuclear bomb, was set back years by the US strikes.

Experts were more skeptical, saying Iranian stores of enriched uranium may have escaped destruction in the US strikes and Tehran may be able to make a weapon in just a few months.

The head of Iran’s atomic energy organization said Tuesday it had “planned ahead of time” to ensure there would be “no interruption to our nuclear program and industry.”

What now for Gaza?

The Middle East has been a tinderbox since October 2023, when Hamas militants from Gaza entered Israel in force, killing hundreds and taking dozens more hostage.

Israel responded with an invasion of the Palestinian enclave to root out Hamas from tunnels and other fortifications that has left over 55,000 people dead, much of Gaza in ruins and its population of 2.1 million at risk of famine, according to the World Health Organization.

While the world’s attention has been on Israel’s fighting with Iran, dozens of people have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza as they scramble to get the limited food aid allowed into the territory, including at least 21 in the past day, Palestinians say.

A group advocating for the return of Israeli hostages held in Gaza has called for the ceasefire between Israel and Iran to be expanded to include the war-torn enclave.

“Those who can achieve a ceasefire with Iran can also end the war in Gaza,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement Tuesday.

The forum said the ceasefire “must expand to include Gaza” and called on the government “to engage in urgent negotiations that will bring home all the hostages and end the war.”

“After 12 days and nights during which the people of Israel could not sleep because of Iran, we can finally go back to not sleeping because of the hostages,” the forum said.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid echoed those sentiments, writing in a post on X: “And now Gaza. This is the moment to close that front as well. To bring the hostages home, to end the war. Israel needs to start rebuilding.”

Qatar said Tuesday that it is hoping for indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in the next two days. The Qatari prime minister said talks were “ongoing,” adding that Qatar and Egypt are in touch with both sides to try to find a “middle ground” regarding the latest US truce on the table.

The proposal calls for the release of 10 Israeli hostages and the bodies of a further 18 Israelis taken on October 7, 2023 as part of a 60-day ceasefire. Earlier this month, Hamas said it had not rejected the proposal but required stronger guarantees around the end of the war. CNN has reached out to Israel and Hamas for comment.

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