UFC 323 fight card predictions: Expert picks for Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2

The final two UFC title defenses of 2025 are set to go down on Saturday at UFC 323 in Las Vegas. In the main event, bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili will look to pick up his fourth win of the year when he faces former champion Petr Yan in a rematch.

If Dvalishvili can defeat Yan, he would set the record for the most consecutive bantamweight title defenses at four and become the first champion to defend a title four times in a calendar year. Yan is a dangerous opponent, with sharp boxing and strong takedown defense, but sits as a +330 underdog.

In the co-main event, dominant flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja will put his belt on the line against rising 24-year-old star Joshua Van. Pantoja is making the fifth defense of the title he won in July 2023. Van is 3-0 in his breakthrough 2025.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities that you can consider before hitting the sportsbooks.

UFC 323 fight card, odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Merab Dvalishvili -425 (c) vs. Petr Yan +330, bantamweight title
• Alexandre Pantoja -238 (c) vs. Joshua Van +195, flyweight title
• Tatsuro Taira -122 vs. Brandon Moreno +102, flyweights
• Payton Talbott -278 vs. Henry Cejudo +225, bantamweights
• Jan Blachowicz -135 vs. Bogdan Guskov +114, light heavyweights
• Grant Dawson -218 vs. Manuel Torres +180, lightweights
• Chris Duncan -166 vs. Terrance McKinney +140, lightweights
• Maycee Barber -180 vs. Karine Silva +150, women’s flyweights
• Fares Ziam -135 vs. Nazim Sadykhov +114, lightweights
• Marvin Vettori -115 vs. Bruno Ferreira -105, middleweights
• Jalin Turner -298 vs. Edson Barboza +240, lightweights
• Iwo Baraniewski -192 vs. Ibo Aslan +160, light heavyweights
• Mansur Abdul-Malik -1150 vs. Antonio Trocoli +650, middleweights
• Mairon Santos -258 vs. Muhammad Naimov +210, featherweights

UFC 323 predictions, picks

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card from Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan predictions

Campbell: Death, taxes and Dvalishvili by decision. That has been the reality for the bantamweight division throughout most of the last seven years as Dvalishvili has run off 14 consecutive wins. While the well-rounded Yan was compromised in their first meeting in 2023 due to an injured hand, so was Dvalishvili, who has a history of persevering through physical setbacks. The recharged Yan might have the power and takedown defense to provide resistance (and this being Dvalishvili’s fourth fight of 2025 needs to be acknowledged) but until another 135-pound fighter can prove he can go 25 minutes with Dvalishvili and not be overwhelmed by the volume of strikes and endless takedown attempts in order to drain their gas tank, it’s not time to pick against the champion.

Brookhouse: Dvalishvili is a pain to deal with; that much is obvious. But he’s also so good at what he does that there’s no real way to gameplan against him. Yan stuffed a ton of Dvalishvili takedowns in their first fight, but he still got blown out on the scorecards. Where the mystery lies is in whether Dvalishvili will be compromised by a fourth camp and weight cut in this calendar year. If Dvalishvili comes in as his normal self, it seems like it’s going to take a home run shot from Yan that stops Dvalishvili immediately to get the victory. How has that worked for anyone recently against the champ?

Mahjouri: Recency bias is a messy thing. Alex Pereira’s revelation that he was compromised in his first fight against Magomed Ankalaev, and his subsequent return to form in the rematch, has led some to put too much stock in Petr Yan’s injury claims. Yan recently claimed he fought Dvalishvili with an injured hand the first time. However, people forget that Dvalishvili also allegedly had a hand injury. The point is: fighters rarely compete at 100%. Injuries are worth factoring, but we must first and foremost observe the data. The data shows that Dvalishvili is the superior fighter. Dvalishvili overwhelmed Yan the first time, and he’s only improving. A second win over Yan means that Dvalishvili will have defeated the top four bantamweight contenders in less than a year. By contrast, while Yan has certainly regained momentum on his three-fight win streak, none of the people he beat are on par with the three UFC champions — Aljamain Sterling, Sean O’Malley, and Dvalishvili — that he lost to. It’s great to see Yan find his groove, but he’s here mostly so that Dvalishvili can make history as the first champion to make four successful defenses in one year.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van predictions

Campbell: At 24, Van represents an incredible story as he seeks to become the second-youngest champion in UFC history. But what Van doesn’t yet know about facing an elite and experienced fighter such as the pound-for-pound ranked Pantoja is simply too much to overcome at such a young age. Look for Pantoja to mix the threat of the takedown with his technical striking to navigate some hairy two-way exchanges early before settling in and using Van’s aggressiveness against him. A late-round submission isn’t out of the question for the accomplished flyweight king as he defends his title for the fifth time.

Mahjouri: Saturday’s co-main event has many thrilling contrasts: experience vs. youth, grappling vs. striking, and underappreciated excellence vs. the hot new thing. Pantoja is a beast who’s quietly put together a flyweight resume second only to Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. He has the most overall wins, finishes, and submissions, and the second-most title fight wins in flyweight history. The champ pairs an in-your-face brawling style with great wrestling and even better back control. His rear-naked choke is particularly deadly, and he’s never been finished in 35 professional fights. If there’s someone who can crack that legendary chin, especially with Pantoja at 35, it’s the challenger. Van is arguably the best pure striker in the division who’s roared to title contention with five wins in under 12 months. His takedown defense could use work, but he’s terrific at getting to his feet quickly. This fight comes down to whose strong defensive game crumbles first: Pantoja’s chin or Van’s ability to get off the mat. Pantoja’s pace is another important factor, considering Van has never fought for more than 15 minutes. There’s a strong case to be made for either fighter, but Pantoja’s pace and experience should get him a decision win or late submission.

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira predictions

Brookhouse: Moreno may have had a small skid in losing split decisions to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval back-to-back, but the two wins that followed proved Moreno is still a handful for anyone in the flyweight division. Taira is a fun and exciting fighter and has the pop in his strikes, so this is not an easy fight for Moreno, but I do believe that proven high-level experience is always a factor to take into consideration. Moreno is 31, which isn’t young in the lightest division, but he’s not showing signs of his best days being behind him. The way Moreno can navigate tricky situations against even the best fighters in the world is a special trait. Taira might be able to explode his way to a victory, but I’m riding with the proven veteran in this one.

Mahjouri: Moreno is about to make himself an undeniable contender after consecutive split decision losses to Pantoja and Brandon Royval. The former two-time flyweight champ has done this by turning away each rising young star put in front of him. Taira is another in that new wave of flyweights trying to replace the old guard. Moreno is so well-rounded, blending elusive striking with a dogged wrestling game. Taira is very offensively oriented, leaving major gaps in his striking and takedown defense. Moreno, who has never been stopped in 33 pro fights, should feast on that for 15 minutes.

Who wins UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.