Have Fed rate cuts already been priced into mortgage rates?

10-year yield and mortgage rates

In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%

So far in 2025, the 10-year yield has stayed in my range most of the time. If I account for some wild after-hours trading, the range has been between 4.79% – 3.87% this year, with most of the year being below 4.70%. We briefly dipped below 4% last week.

I recorded two important episodes of the HousingWire Daily podcast last week discussing why the labor market continues to play a crucial role in the bond market, as it has for many years. This dynamic helps explain why mortgage rates reached a yearly low last week, despite inflation concerns.

This podcast talks about the impact of tariffs, while this one is on jobless claims data. Clearly, the labor market has dominated in 2025, pushing rates down even with inflation above targets, trillions in debt that need to be issued and the Fed maintaining a modestly restrictive stance.

So what about the Fed meeting this week and the rate cut that is expected?

Last year at this time, the 10-year yield reached 3.63%, which to me was pricing in a recession at that point because Fed policy was too restrictive to have the 10-year yield that low. The Fed cut rates by 0.50%, but the more critical variable was that the economic data was improving, so bond yields shot up — as they should have.

The labor data was significantly better last year than it is this year, and mortgage spreads were larger. The current situation is different given the labor market is much softer and mortgage spreads are much better in 2025. So, we don’t exactly have a similar backdrop, as the 10-year yield is at 4.07% and not at 3.63%.

If labor data improves and inflation remains above target, the 10-year yield should rise toward the range of 4.35% to 4.50%, taking mortgage rates higher with it. On the other hand, if the Fed decides to move away from a moderately restrictive stance and the labor data gets softer,  the scenario can send rates lower. However, this Federal Reserve has not given me any reason to believe they intend to remove their modestly restrictive policy stance. As a result, I believe a lot of rate cuts are currently priced into mortgage rates.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage rates would not have reached a yearly low last week if it weren’t for improved mortgage spreads in 2025. Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged between 1.60% and 1.80%.

If the spreads today were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.81% percentage points higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.49% to 0.69% lower than today’s level.

If we had the best levels of normal spreads, we would have mortgage rates at 5.60% to 5.80% today.

Purchase application data

We saw positive growth in purchase application data this week, with week-to-week growth of 7% and year-over-year growth of 23%. I wrote more about this positive growth in this article. For me, it’s simple. Housing data tends to get better when mortgage rates are below 6.64% and heading toward 6%, but they need duration. So far, we have had a positive 6-week trend since mortgage rates fell below 6.64% and we need another six to eight weeks of this for it to mean something, similar to what we saw last year and in late 2022. 

Here is the weekly data for 2025 so far:

• 17 positive readings
• 12 negative readings
• 6 flat prints
• 32 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
• 19 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year

Total pending sales

Note: Holidays can affect demand data for a two-week period so the data will be back to normal next week.

The latest total pending sales data from HousingWire Data provides valuable insights into current trends in housing demand. Last year, we observed a significant shift when mortgage rates decreased from 6.64% to around 6%. We have achieved consistent low-level year-over-year growth recently and last week continued that trend. It will be interesting to see this data line over the next few months if rates can stay at the low-6% level. 

Total pending sales last week in the previous two years: 

• 2025: 363,763 
• 2024: 357,437

Weekly pending sales

Note: Our weekly pending home sales can really be wild for two weeks when one of the weekends has a holiday. 

Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data; however, this data line can be impacted by holidays and any short-term shocks. We are still showing slight year-over-year growth in this data line. The pending sales data will typically hit the existing home sales report 30-60 days out.

Weekly pending sales for last week:

• 2025: 62,185
• 2024: 60,996

Weekly housing inventory data

Note: Weekly inventory data does get impacted by holidays as well.

Last week, we observed a significant and unusual decline in inventory. However, I chalked it up to the holiday weekend, a variable I talked about the previous week. I had anticipated a rebound in inventory and we’ve achieved it and next week we can return to normal again. Inventory growth is still the best housing story for 2025, but since mid-June, that growth rate has slowed.

• Weekly inventory change (Sept. 5-Sept. 12): Inventory rose from 846,516 to 860,219
• The same week last year (Sept. 6-Sept. 13): Inventory rose from 703,376 to 713,193

New listings data

The new listings data peaked during the week of May 23 this year, reaching a total of 83,143 listings. Since then, this number has gradually declined. The two-week impact we see here is that the new listing data is slightly lower year over year. We should be back to normal next week, but the new listings data having it’s seasonal decline is normal.

To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here’s last week’s new listings data over the past two years:

• 2025: 64,443
• 2024: 65,170

Price-cut percentage

Note: The price-cut percentage data is the only data line this week that surprised me. I had anticipated it to rise this week, due to the impacts of a 2-week holiday run-off, which didn’t happen.

In an average year, approximately one-third of homes experience price reductions. Homeowners often lower their sale prices when inventory levels increase and mortgage rates remain high, which is why the percentage of price reductions is greater in 2025 than it was last year. This has been another great story for housing in 2025, as the housing market has become a much more friendly market for buyers in 2025. 

Here are the percentages of homes that saw price reductions last week in the past few years:

The week ahead: Fed meetings, retail sales and housing starts

It’s Fed week and we all get to see what Jerome Powell and certain members really feel about the labor market after a batch of data lines that question the Federal Reserve’s stance that the labor market is solid.

Additionally, we will receive data on homebuilder confidence and housing starts. It’s noteworthy that last year, when mortgage rates neared 6%, builder confidence and housing data showed improvement. Therefore, I anticipate some positive movement in the confidence data in the upcoming week. Retail sales data will also be released on Tuesday. Regarding the recent spike in jobless claims data last week, I don’t believe the Fed will be overly concerned about it.

I believe the Federal Reserve will ignore this spike, as it was an abnormally large spike from one state — Texas. This report should show a decline next week. In any case, buckle up, folks.