3 NBA Draft prospects overrated by consensus 2025 big boards

Scouting the NBA Draft is equal parts art and science. Most potential first-round picks can look promising if you cherry-pick the right Bart Torvik queries, but character, work ethic, injury luck, and team fit always play a vital role in determining how a player’s career will unfold.

Evaluating a draft class tends to bring out plenty of armchair analysts if only because the NBA front offices miss with regularity. Hasheem Thabeet went before Stephen Curry and James Harden in the 2009 draft, DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III were taken before Luka Doncic in 2018, and James Wiseman was picked before Tyrese Haliburton in 2020. Teams can dedicate millions of dollars to scouting and analytics departments and still get the pick wrong even if their reasoning for the selection makes sense on paper.

I’ve been lucky enough to cover the NBA Draft at SB Nation since 2013, way back when I was writing about a young Rudy Gobert at the combine. My personal track record of draft evaluation is filled with hits and misses over the years, and some of my draft boards and instant grades look a little better than others. With the 2025 draft only two weeks away, here are three prospects I’m fading compared to where they’re ranked on most mainstream boards. I’ll be back with my favorite underrated prospects in the days to come.

Egor Demin, G, BYU

ESPN ranking: 11 | Consensus big board: 14

Demin looked like a top-5 pick early in the year as he torched an easy schedule at BYU. When the competition got tougher, Demin started to fade, exposing some of the flaws in his skill set underscored by poor production against conference opponents.

Demin has an incredible combination of size (he measured over 6’8 barefoot) and passing skill. The issue is that both areas are a bit negated by his lack of strength, athletic explosion, and scoring gravity. Demin just doesn’t threaten the defense much as a scorer after finishing with 10.6 points per game on 50.6 true shooting, which is typically around six points below average scoring efficiency. He can’t beat any tough on-ball defender without a screen because he lacks burst as a driver and the strength to play through contact. He doesn’t change directions quickly with his handle, and can be a little loose with the ball. Often, Demin will have to settle for a three because he can’t get himself a better look, and that’s usually a win for the defense. Demin had straight up bad shooting indicators at BYU, making 27.3 percent of his threes (on 154 attempts) and 69.5 percent of his free throws. He has no mid-range game, and he doesn’t grab offensive rebounds.

Demin doesn’t project as a primary initiator until he can consistently create advantages as a driver. He doesn’t make sense as a forward either because he’s not a reliable floor spacer and he doesn’t have the strength to defend fours. I’m low on Demin’s defense and rebounding projection. Even if he gets better as a shooter, his turnover issues and inability to get to the foul line could hold him back.

Of course, there’s still a world where everything clicks for Demin. He’s absolutely gigantic for a guard at nearly 6’10 shoes, and his passing vision and creativity is special at times. He can see over the top of any defender, and fire crosscourt passes on angles shorter players would miss. It’s possible that his defense becomes passable, and he turns into a nice connective piece who can grease the wheels of an offense with his hit-ahead passing and respectable spot-up shooting when he’s left open. Perhaps he will start to welcome contact as his body develops. I spoke with Demin at the combine, and he struck me as a kind and smart kid who should do well in interviews. Ultimately, his poor production vs. top competition, shaky three-point shot, and athletic limitations makes him more of a borderline first-round pick to em than a lottery choice like he’s being projected.

Liam McNeeley, F, UConn

ESPN ranking: 16 | Consensus big board: 17

I liked what I saw from McNeeley as a high school player on a Montverde team with one of the greatest collections of prep talent ever. Starting alongside three other projected first-round picks in Cooper Flagg, Derik Queen, and Asa Newell, McNeeley flashed his dynamic shooting and off-ball scoring as a wonderful complement to a stacked team. He figured to be a great fit in UConn’s whirling offensive system as the program chased a national championship three-peat. I put him No. 7 in our first 2025 draft board the day after the 2024 draft.

Instead, UConn never looked like a real contender, and McNeeley’s inability to live up to the hype was a big reason why. The most surprising part of the freshman’s troubles was that he struggled to shoot from deep, making just 31.7 percent of his threes on 145 attempts. Without a reliable three-ball, some of his athletic limitations were on display as he struggled to finish at the rim (posting ghastly 48.6 percent rim finishing, per Bart) and create his own shot. He finished with a higher turnover percentage than assist percentage. UConn’s offensive rating was six points better when he was on the bench vs. when he was playing.

McNeeley just isn’t a power athlete, and that means he will likely get targeted defensively despite solid positional size. His defensive playmaking was almost non-existent with only 15 steals and six blocks in 27 games. He can get buried under the hoop by more powerful offensive players, and he doesn’t have great length or great speed on closeouts to the arc. He just lacks the tools required to be a good NBA defender, and even getting to neutral would be a big win for him.

McNeeley’s best argument is that his one year at UConn was still a small sample with only 27 games. I was in the gym against DePaul in early Jan. when he suffered an ankle injury that cost him eight games. He still didn’t seem right physically when he got back. If that injury never happens, maybe his athletic limitations don’t look so alarming. McNeeley also had two years of elite shooting three-point shooting at Montverde at about 45 percent. If he shoots like that, there’s a spot in the league for him, but his shot looked a lot less intimidating when teams didn’t have to worry about covering Flagg/Queen/Newell. I’ll also credit McNeeley with being a surprisingly tough rebounder who was even better in that area against good teams (20.7 percent defensive rebound rate vs. top-50 competition). McNeeley’s freshman year was a rough watch, and it’s given me pause about his NBA translation for a league that is unforgiving to players with strength and athletic limitations. Unless he gets back to being an elite shooter, it’s hard to see how his profile is worth a mid first-round pick.

Danny Wolf, F, Michigan

ESPN ranking: 19 | Consensus big board: 22

Wolf was one of the coolest players to watch in college basketball this year. A 7-foot, 250-pound big man with legitimate point guard skills, Wolf was the supersized lead ball handler on Michigan who had some amazing flashes in his best moments. He orchestrated a massive pick-and-roll with 7’1 center Vlad Goldin that could pulverize teams inside, he threw slick behind-the-back passes in transition, and he even flashed some pull-up shooting touch.

My issue with Wolf is the role he had in college feels unlikely to be his role in the NBA, and I’m less sold on his ability to be a low-usage complementary piece. There’s a reason why a 7-foot point guard is such an oddity, and it feels likely NBA defenders will be able to get into his legs and pressure his dribble. Wolf already had significant turnover problems this year at Michigan, with a 23.9 percent turnover rate that ranks among the highest in this draft class. Wolf’s possessions as a pick-and-roll handler were frequent but not all that efficient with 0.77 points per possessions, which ranked in the 54th percentile nationally. There’s an extremely high bar to be an on-ball engine in the NBA, and I’m skeptical Wolf clears it.

Wolf’s shot-making flashes were incredible this year, but I’m not buying how his shooting translates to the NBA. He only made 33.6 percent of 113 attempts from three-point range, and his free throw shooting was absolutely terrible at 59.4 percent this season, and 63.9 percent for his three-year college career. His release looks a bit too slow to me right now, and his spot-ups will be more difficult against NBA contests.

Wolf also just isn’t very physical or explosive athletically. He only dunked the ball eight times in 37 games as a 7-footer. He’s not stout enough as a rim protector to play the five full-time defensively, and he feels a little too slow to stick with the bigger wings who play the four in the NBA.

Ultimately, every team in the NBA is looking for the intersection of size and skill that Wolf potentially offers. It’s certainly possible he can survive defensively as a four given his strong chest, decent lateral quickness, and secondary shot-blocking potential. If he can be solid on defense, Wolf has a path to being a connective offensive piece with his passing and transition scoring. He obviously has some shooting touch given his shot-making flashes, and if his three-point stroke ever becomes consistent, suddenly he could be really interesting. Wolf was so much fun at Michigan, but a version of him with less offensive freedom and a bigger defensive burden against better athletes still gives me pause.