Real Estate News & Market Insights:
Following two consecutive years of steady growth, New York City saw its overall population shrink in 2025, fueled by an exodus of local residents across all income brackets.
A new study from the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonprofit civic think tank, shows that the Big Apple’s net population, accounting for all gains (through births and in-migration) and losses (through deaths and out-migration), dropped by 12,000 last year.
This decline comes on the heels of strong post-pandemic gains, which saw the city’s overall population swell by 70,000 in 2023 and 163,000 in 2024, mostly driven by an influx of migrants and asylum seekers.
As tighter federal and local immigration policies went into effect in 2025, international in-migration plunged by 70% while domestic out-migration escalated, reversing past growth.
Overall, New York City lost 114,000 more residents to other U.S. cities than it gained last year. While this is an uptick from the 94,000 net loss from domestic moves recorded in 2024, it remains significantly lower than the pandemic-era peak loss of 330,000 in 2021.
Who’s leaving the Big Apple?
The study found a significant shift in migration: While the pandemic sparked a surge in departures among New York’s top 40% of earners, by 2024, the trend moved toward the bottom 40%. The data reveals a displacement crisis that now spans the entire socioeconomic spectrum.
“More New York City residents of all incomes, races, ethnicities, and ages have moved to other parts of the U.S. than moved in,” reads the report. “Such broad-based domestic outmigration demonstrates that many differently-situated New Yorkers no longer find New York City’s value proposition compelling.”
The authors of the study suggest that the loss of working- and middle-class New Yorkers likely reflects the high cost of living in the five boroughs and possibly the quality of services, including schools.
“It is a barometer of the challenges of raising a family in New York City,” they write.
The study points out that housing is one of the biggest factors influencing whether residents move to, stay in, or leave New York City.
Rising rents, tight inventory, and persistent affordability headwinds are leaving New Yorkers both cost-burdened and short on viable housing options.
At the end of 2025, the median asking rent in the city jumped nearly 7%, or $223, compared to a year ago, surging to $3,585, according to a quarterly rental report from Realtor.com®.
What’s more, nearly 90% of renters stayed put, far above national and comparable-market levels, leaving few rental units available for new households.
Population loss and housing
Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu says that while the city’s recent population loss should ease the rental market crunch, the latest data indicates that median asking rents continue to rise on an annual basis.
“The reason is straightforward: Out-migration doesn’t solve a supply crisis,” says Xu. “The city’s housing stock is so chronically undersupplied that even a shrinking renter pool faces vacancy rates below 2%.”
The economist adds that new-housing development has been concentrated in just a few areas and skewed toward luxury, doing little to address the stubborn shortage and affordability issues that most New Yorkers face.
“When supply is this constrained, modest shifts in demand simply don’t register,” adds Xu.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani ran a campaign promising a rent freeze to improve housing affordability, but economists have warned that it could reduce tenant turnover even further, effectively locking the city’s rental market.
Recent research from Realtor.com found that the typical New York renter would need a $70,000 annual salary increase to afford to move to a new apartment, trapping many in place and freezing supply.
Where are New Yorkers heading?
Most New Yorkers who choose the leave the city remain in the area, often moving to Long Island, Westchester, and neighboring states like New Jersey, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania, according to the study.
Those leaving the region entirely most commonly move to Florida, California, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia.
“People leaving the city may be choosing a place offering them a higher value proposition through a better mix of quality of life and cost of living,” states the report. “Notably, Florida and Texas have lower taxes. New Jersey and the rest of New York State apparently offer amenities making the choice to leave worthwhile for some, despite relatively high taxes.”
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