The new price reality: Why 84% of consumers have seen rising costs and how brands must respond

Consumer behavior is shifting fast, and it’s not just about inflation fatigue. New research comparing consumer sentiment from November 2024 to May 2025 reveals a market defined by heightened price sensitivity, declining optimism, and aggressive value-seeking behavior.

For CPG brands, the equation is simple: master smart pricing and compelling promotions, or watch your products get cut from the cart.

The Price Perception Shift

Today’s shoppers aren’t just feeling the pinch – they’re bracing for more. The numbers tell a stark story:

• 84% now report experiencing price increases on grocery, home and personal care items, up 16 percentage points in just six months.
• Expectations are rising, too: 66% expect prices to keep climbing, up from 47% in November.
• And hope is fading fast: just 12% expect any price relief, down from 33%.

This surge in price pessimism signals a fundamental shift in how consumers approach spending on food and household goods – they’re not just reacting to current prices, they’re planning for a continued squeeze.

Stabilizing Shelves, Rising Uncertainty

Supply chain news isn’t all bad. Out-of-stock experiences dropped from 42% to 31%, which should be cause for celebration. But consumers aren’t buying it: 46% now believe supply disruptions will continue or worsen in the coming months.

There’s a disconnect here between improving reality and worsening expectations, likely driven by uncertainty around tariffs, trade policy, and general economic instability. For brands, this creates a brief window of opportunity while shelves are stocked but anxiety is high.

The Rise of the Value Hacker

Consumers aren’t just more sensitive to prices. They’re actively hunting value at every turn. Promotional responsiveness has hit near-universal levels, with 96% saying promotions influence what they buy.

• 37% are highly likely to act on a good deal
• 19% say the right offer triggers immediate purchase

This isn’t casual bargain hunting. It’s disciplined, strategic, and increasingly digital:

• 72% actively use retailer promotions
• 65% hunt down manufacturer coupons
• 34% stack savings through third-party cashback apps

Digital promotions used to be easy to ignore. Now they’re prime real estate, with 83% of consumers actively engaging rather than scrolling past.

What Brands Need to Do Now

This environment demands smart moves, not just survival tactics. The data points to three clear priorities:

1. Make price strategy central, not reactive. Inflation expectations are rising, so brands need to reframe how they deliver and communicate value. Don’t race to the bottom. Prove what makes every dollar worth it.
2. Elevate promotions from tactic to strategy. Deals aren’t just driving short-term lifts anymore. They’re how consumers plan and budget. A well-timed, well-placed promotion can make or break the sale at the digital shelf.
3. Design for the high-alert shopper. Today’s consumer is sharp, skeptical, and selective. Promotional content must feel useful, not gimmicky. Transparency, simplicity, and timing matter more than ever.

The Bottom Line

Price sensitivity isn’t going anywhere. It’s becoming the default shopping mode for most consumers, and this isn’t just about economic pressure – it’s about permanent behavioral change.

The winning brands won’t be the ones with the loudest campaigns. They’ll be the ones with the smartest pricing, the clearest value, and the most compelling offers delivered exactly when consumers are ready to act.

Download The SmartPulse report for the full intel, plus specific promotional strategies for turning price-sensitive consumers into loyal customers.