College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting top 25 teams ahead of final bracket reveal

We’re just hours away from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee unveiling its final top 25 rankings, which set the seven at-large bids and five automatic qualifiers in the 12-team bracket for the 2025 season. Bubble intrigue has been building, and it’s coming to a head with three 10-win programs — Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami — each staking a claim to the playoff.

Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer made his final pitch after the Crimson Tide’s worst performance of the season: a 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. DeBoer emphasized the attempt to win the game rather than minimize the margin.

“You look at the games we played throughout the season, but if you’re really looking at this game, it was a 14-point game with 7.5 minutes to go, and we had the ball,” DeBoer said. “You look at things that didn’t go well. Four short fields. I don’t want to take anything away from what Georgia did. Field position battle is part of it. Four short fields. That’s a testament to our defense being resilient. One of those touchdowns … if we’re really worried about the score, probably punt it on your own 11, right?

But we’re here to win an SEC Championship. We’re not here, if you lose by 1, or you lose by more, it’s still a loss. That’s what I was caring about.”

We expect the committee’s final at-large selections to come down to the Crimson Tide, Fighting Irish and Hurricanes, with BYU falling out of the conversation following its 27-point loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. Opening-round byes should go to Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech, while the most favorable home game is designated for fifth-seed Oregon.

From there, the final rankings could significantly change.

1. Indiana (13-0): After beating Ohio State for the first time since 1988, Curt Cignetti’s program will enter the playoff as the lone remaining unbeaten and top seed. Really, really impressive. The Hoosiers will be heading to the Rose Bowl with an opening-round bye. Last week’s ranking: No. 2

2. Ohio State (12-1): One dominant performance early in the season was enough to convince voters the Buckeyes were the nation’s best team, and three months later, Ohio State finally suffered its first loss in the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes will still enter the postseason as one of the overwhelming favorites to claim another national title under Ryan Day. Last week’s ranking: No. 1

3. Georgia (12-1): Few coaches prepare their teams for big games as consistently as Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs have won in multiple ways this fall, but recent victories over Texas, Georgia Tech and Alabama showcased a defensive-driven approach that has unlocked a new strength. Georgia enters the postseason looking every bit the part. Last week’s ranking: No. 3

4. Texas Tech (12-1): Another defense-first squad capable of scoring points at will, the Red Raiders turned the Big 12 Championship Game against BYU into a blowout after a tight first half. Texas Tech’s late-game surge impressed the committee and solidified its spot near the top. Last week’s ranking: No. 4

5. Oregon (11-1): The committee avoided placing three Big Ten teams in the top four, even though the Ducks make a case. Oregon’s only loss came at home to Indiana, and it closed November with four wins over bowl-bound teams. Dan Lanning has built an impressive resume in Year 2. Last week’s ranking: No. 5

6. Ole Miss (11-1): The Rebels’ lone loss came at eventual SEC champion Georgia. Since then, Ole Miss has been dominant, including a 35-point win over Group of Five champion Tulane and a road victory at Oklahoma. Their challenge was convincing the committee they deserved a first-round home game despite Lane Kiffin’s departure. Last week’s ranking: No. 6

7. Texas A&M (11-1): Last week’s loss to Texas sent the Aggies from a potential first-round bye to hosting a playoff game. Still, dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed could carry this team deep into the postseason. Last week’s ranking: No. 7

8. Oklahoma (10-2): Brent Venables navigated a brutal schedule and won a marquee nonconference matchup against Michigan. After beating the Wolverines and winning several elimination games, the Sooners earned their spot in the 12-team bracket. Last week’s ranking: No. 8

9. Notre Dame (10-2): The committee has consistently ranked the Fighting Irish ahead of Miami. While Notre Dame’s head-to-head loss to the Hurricanes will be noted, the Fighting Irish remain firmly in the at-large mix, likely on the road in the first round. Last week’s ranking: No. 10

10. Alabama (10-3): A third loss won’t keep the Crimson Tide out of the playoff, but it raises questions about seeding. Alabama’s two regular-season wins over ranked teams, including Georgia, outweigh its SEC Championship defeat. Injuries and absences factored into Saturday’s loss, and the committee may take that into account. Last week’s ranking: No. 9

11. Miami (10-2): The Hurricanes are on the outside looking in. They did nearly everything right this season except win the ACC — the only surefire path to the playoff. Without a conference title, their postseason fate rests in the committee’s hands. Last week’s ranking: No. 12

12. BYU (11-2): Two lopsided losses to Texas Tech keep the Cougars out of the playoff. Despite controlling their destiny entering the final weekend, the Red Raiders proved the vastly superior team in both meetings. Last week’s ranking: No. 11

13. Texas (9-3): The Longhorns’ playoff hopes were sunk by losses to Georgia and Florida, not the season-opening defeat at Ohio State. Steve Sarkisian’s squad now shifts focus to postseason opportunities, including a potential matchup against a Big Ten opponent in the Citrus Bowl. Last week’s ranking: No. 13

14. Vanderbilt (10-2): Clark Lea’s Commodores are the lone 10-win SEC team left out of the bracket. Road losses to Alabama and Texas ultimately kept Vanderbilt off the at-large list, despite strong overall metrics. Last week’s ranking: No. 14

15. Utah (10-2): Veteran coach Kyle Whittingham can take pride in his team’s turnaround. The Utes made significant offensive changes this fall, and their only losses came to Texas Tech and BYU. Utah enters bowl season riding a five-game winning streak, led by strong production from Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin in the backfield. Last week’s ranking: No. 15

16. USC (9-3): Lincoln Riley’s first top-ranked signing class has Trojans fans buzzing. USC will aim to finish the season with double-digit wins while building momentum for a Big Ten debut in 2026. Last week’s ranking: No. 17

17. Tulane (11-2): The Green Wave captured the American Conference Championship with a decisive win over No. 24 North Texas, punching the program’s first-ever playoff ticket. Jon Sumrall’s focus will shift to Florida in the coming weeks ahead of Tulane’s first-round matchup. Last week’s ranking: No. 20

18. Arizona (9-3): The Wildcats have a chance to reach double-digit wins in a bowl game, marking a strong second season turnaround. Quarterback Noah Fifita is closing in on 3,000 passing yards, cementing his status as one of the Big 12’s most underrated players. Last week’s ranking: No. 18

19. Michigan (9-3): A loss to Ohio State and Tulane’s American Championship victory pushed the Wolverines down one spot its penultimate ranking. Michigan now turns its focus to a potential Citrus Bowl matchup with Texas. Last week’s ranking: No. 19

20. Virginia (10-3): That was a brutal loss in Charlotte for the Cavaliers, who likely kept the ACC out of the playoff after a letdown against Duke. Virginia beat the Blue Devils on the road by double digits last month, but struggled to find a rhythm offensively with a playoff berth on the line. Last week’s ranking: No. 17

21. Houston (9-3): November losses to unranked West Virginia and TCU ended Houston’s Big 12 title hopes but set the Cougars up for one of the conference’s higher-tier bowl games. Quarterback Conner Weigman leads a team ready to rebound in postseason play. Last week’s ranking: No. 21

22. Georgia Tech (9-3): The Yellow Jackets showed resilience against Georgia, even after missing the ACC Championship. Quarterback Haynes King will cap his Tech career in bowl season, leaving the program better than he found it. Last week’s ranking: No. 23

23. James Madison (12-1): The Dukes claimed the Sun Belt title with a win over Troy but remain behind Tulane as the Group of Five’s second-highest ranked team. However, Virginia’s ACC Championship loss to Duke means JMU is likely heading to the playoff. Last week’s ranking: No. 25

24. Iowa (8-4): Iowa re-entered the rankings after a notable road win at Nebraska. All four of the Hawkeyes’ losses came against ranked teams, reinforcing their credibility in the final poll. Last week’s ranking: No. 23

25. Pittsburgh (8-4): The Panthers’ placement matters for bubble CFP hopefuls Notre Dame and Miami. If Pitt earns the nod, it adds a ranked win to both teams’ resumes; if SMU is chosen, Miami takes a quality loss. Notre Dame is projected to be the last team in, with Pitt rounding out the top 25. Last week’s ranking: N/R