Mortgage spreads are the hero of the 2025 housing market

Mortgage spreads

In 2025, my forecast for mortgage spreads was for them to improve by 0.27%-0.41% using a 2025 average of 2.54%. As volatility compresses and the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cut cycle, much like in 2024, the spreads should improve. With mortgage spreads down to 2.15% last week, the improvement reached 0.39%, so we are almost at the peak of my forecast. So, if we see more improvement, then my 2025 forecast was actually too conservative.

Mortgage rates would not have reached a yearly low this year if it weren’t for improved mortgage spreads in 2025. The 10-year yield hasn’t come close to the lows we saw last year at 3.62% intraday, so the spreads have had to do some significant lifting in 2025. 

If the spreads today were as bad as they were at the peak of 2023, mortgage rates would currently be 0.95% percentage points higher. Conversely, if the spreads returned to their normal range, mortgage rates would be 0.55% to 0.35% lower than today’s level. If we had the best levels of normal spreads, we would have mortgage rates at 5.83% to 6.03% today.

10-year yield and mortgage rates

In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 7.25%
• The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.70%

Last week, we saw a significant batch of positive economic data, which pushed the 10-year yield back to a key retracement level I have discussed since we reached 4%. Better economic data can lead to higher bond yields, but we haven’t seen the same level of drama as we did last year, when the 10-year yield dropped as low as 3.62% and then shot up over 40 basis points in 30 days .

Mortgage rates remained relatively stable last week, starting at 6.35% and ending the week at 6.375%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Polly, which shows the locked rate data, has rates at 6.33%.

Purchase application data

Rates have risen from the bottom, but we still saw positive growth in purchase application data this week, with week-to-week growth of 0.3% and year-over-year growth of 18%. I was a bit surprised we didn’t get a negative weekly print, but it was only slightly positive.

Here is the weekly data for 2025 so far:

• 19 positive readings
• 12 negative readings
• 6 flat prints
• 34 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
• 21 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year

Since mortgage rates have gotten below 6.64% and headed toward 6%, the key level I have talked about for years, the weekly data has had:

• 7 positive weeks
• 1 negative week
• 8 straight weeks of double-digit growth year over year

We traditionally need about 12-14 weeks of positive weekly purchase apps data to have a material, impact and the last 8 weeks have been the best 8 weeks of the year.

Weekly pending sales

Our weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week glimpse into the data although it can be impacted by holidays and any short-term shocks. We are still showing slight year-over-year growth in this data line. The pending sales data will typically hit the existing home sales report 30-60 days out. This last week has been our highest weekly pending home sales since home sales crashed in 2022.

Weekly pending sales for last week:

• 2025: 65,152
• 2024: 62,576

Weekly housing inventory data

Last week, we observed a small decline in inventory. We also saw inventory decline In the month of August, which has been rare over the past few years, but was normal in the pre-Covid era. However, I believed that we would see another yearly high before the seasonal decline happened. We have been close, but that still hasn’t occurred and I am running out of time for that call to be correct as the seasonal decline will happen soon.

Regardless of the recent decline, the best story for housing in 2025 was that we have had very healthy inventory growth, which cooled down home prices, which was sorely needed.

• Weekly inventory change (Sept. 19-Sept. 26): Inventory fell from 862,833 to 862,575
• The same week last year (Sept. 20-Sept. 27): Inventory rose from 725,276 to 731,010

New listings data

The new listings data peaked during the week of May 23 this year, reaching a total of 83,143 listings. Since then, this number has gradually declined. We are still showing slight year-over-year growth, but in 2025 once again, we haven’t seen a mass rush of sellers. 

To give you some perspective, during the years of the housing bubble crash, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for many years. Here’s last week’s new listings data over the past two years:

• 2025: 65,078
• 2024: 62,987

Price-cut percentage

In an average year, approximately one-third of homes experience price reductions. Homeowners often lower their sale prices when inventory levels increase and mortgage rates remain high, which is why the percentage of price reductions is greater in 2025 than it was last year. This has been another great story for housing in 2025, as the housing market has become a much more friendly market for buyers in 2025.

We haven’t see any growth recently with the price cut data from the peak a few weeks ago as mortgage rates have fallen and inventory growth slowed down. Here are the percentages of homes that saw price reductions last week in the past few years:

The week ahead: Jobs week — if the government doesn’t shut down

Yes, it’s that time of the month again — it’s jobs week! Well, assuming the government is still working at that point. If not, we won’t get the full weeks of data. The bar is very low for the Fed to be ok with the jobs data since Jerome Powell blessed job growth from zero to 50,000 as an ok level for the U.S. economy. So unless we are printing negative jobs, don’t look for the Fed to get more dovish under the Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve.

We also have a ton of Fed members scheduled to speak this week, which will be interesting, plus pending home sales and home price index reports, which of course lag our Housing Market Tracker data by a few months.